Just a few days after the Oscar nominations land, we’re already thrust back into a radical contrast with the Golden Globe awards approaching fast. For once, however, they don’t seem so entirely superfluous, in spite of a nominations lineup that ignored The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Magic Mike entirely. Admittedly, though, the Academy missed that chance too, but the Golden Globes have some special opportunities that the Oscars don’t. Odds are in favor of an excessive batch of predictable wins, but deny nothing in a year as scatter-shot as this. All that in mind, let’s bare things down to predictions, complete with ‘will win/should win’ treatment.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Further Thoughts: Going off the assumption that the globes don’t usually give their dramatic prize to the Oscar winner, Argo just seems perfectly within the *Hollywood* Foreign Press Association’s tastes.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Will/Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Further Thoughts: Never doubt Weinstein. Though Les Miserables‘ sturgid musical production will certainly have strong advocates for its geriatric sensibilities, Russell’s woozy family affair Silver Linings Playbook will hit further home.
Best Actor – Drama
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Further Thoughts: It’s somewhat gratifying to have one award that’s no-contest this season. Day-Lewis’ performance may be rivaled in history by Phoenix’s physically contorted work, but for this season, DDL has his legacy tied up in a bow.
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Will/Should Win: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Further Thoughts: Cooper’s got more of an edge over Jackman than you might suspect, partly due to the Weinstein factor, but he’s frankly fiercer than his competitors kindly work in Les Miserables. We’ll be seeing Silver Linings Playbook win over plenty hearts throughout the night.
Best Actress – Drama
Will Win: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Should Win: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Further Thoughts: I’m going out on a limb for bragging rights. Cotillard’s 2008 win for La Vie En Rose put her on track to Oscar glory, and with Academy love being a non-factor her, I’d say her chances are good at having made a distinct impression. Jessica Chastain’s work on Zero Dark Thirty, while vigorous, may not dial quite into the HFPA’s hearts, and make no mistake, their heart is what motivates them.
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Meryl Streep, Hope Springs (by a hair)
Further Thoughts: Streep got the love last year, in my opinion just too early to be acknowledged for her generation defining work in Hope Springs. Lawrence just appeals to a different, younger generation, and the manic velocity of her performance will benefit her quite deservedly here.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Further Thoughts: I suppose I am predicting an evening of Oscar shutouts, somewhat fondly towards those who don’t even have a shot at Oscar. I’m also counting on the HFPA being more susceptible to Weinstein’s charm, and DiCaprio looks like the wildcard performance people often seek in this race. But if they’re really feeling Lincoln, they could still go for Jones.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Should Win: Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Further Thoughts: For some time I felt Sally Field may take this, but Hathaway is such a charismatic presence, as displayed well at the Critics Choice Awards. That combined with the raw emotional heft of her performance should make her the second sure thing of the season.
Will Win: Ben Affleck, Argo
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Further Thoughts: See Best Picture explanation, though Bigelow’s assertiveness through Zero Dark Thirty could surprise here. Given that they favored Cameron three years ago, though, I doubt it.
Will Win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Should Win: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Original Score
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Best Original Song
Will Win: “Suddenly” from Les Miserables
Should Win: “Skyfall” from Skyfall
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Should Win: Frankenweenie
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: The Intouchables
Should Win: Rust and Bone
And my television wishlist, just for kicks:
Best Series – Drama: Breaking Bad
Best Series – Musical or Comedy: Girls
Best Actor – Drama: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy: Louis C.K., Louie
Best Actress – Drama: Claire Danes, Homeland
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Best Supporting Actor: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Best Supporting Actress: Sarah Paulson, Game Change