Two of the biggest precursor awards have already announced their winners and we’re still a few weeks away from the Academy even announcing their nominees. If you ask me, the Awards season schedule needs a change that doesn’t keep us waiting forever for the big awards to come along. By the time the March Oscar ceremony rolls around we’re already one fourth of the way through 2010 and still paying homage to 2009 films.
Anyway, since the old system is still in place we will look to the indicators provided by ceremonies that pre-date the Oscars by two full months. It’s all we have. Here are five things that Sunday night’s Golden Globe Awards told us about the Oscar race.
1) Mo’Nique has won the Oscar.
The only thing that could de-rail a performer that has swept nearly all of the precursors is bad PR. The Academy voters are members of the film industry, and if you don’t play their game the right way, they will not reward you. Not only did Mo’Nique win Best Supporting Actress last night for performance in Precious, but her speech was gracious, eloquent, and humble. That’s probably all that it took to erase the bad PR she has gathered in the past few weeks by snubbing several critics’ awards ceremonies.
2) The Dude is a frontruner.
The Best Actor race was wide open and anybody’s for grabs…until this past weekend. With Jeff Bridges winning both the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe he jumps to the front of the pack in the Oscar race. George Clooney is still the overall leader in the precursor race, but Bridges is looking like a strong candidate for the Oscar.
3) Nobody loves Nine.
Both the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globe Awards gave a substantial amount of nominations to Rob Marshall’s Nine and then proceeded to not give it any awards. It’s looking like Nine, which up until late December was predicted to be one of the highest nomination getters of the season, could only find itself in one or two categories. Penelope Cruz will probably get a nomination and it may find its way into the Best Cinematography category. Other than that, it will be forgotten fast (as it deserves).
4) Pixar’s about to threepeat the Best Animated Oscar.
This isn’t really a surprise, but for a while some were suggesting that The Fantastic Mr. Fox might sneak in and steal the Oscar from Pixar’s Up. However, it’s becoming more and more apparent that Wes Anderson’s film is more hip amongst metropolitan critics and the slightly more conservative Oscar voters are likely to go along with the BFCA and the HFPA in rewarding Pixar’s beautiful film.
5) Best Picture might be a two horse race.
The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar, gritty realism vs. escapist fantasy, indie vs. blockbuster, ex-wife vs. ex-husband – the Oscar appeal basically markets itself. Each of the two popular films won major awards this weekend, but does it mean anything? Over the past five years, when two separate films have won the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe, it’s the film that wins the BFCA that goes on to win the Oscar. However, that’s not always the case. It’s a four-horse race with Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds definitely still in play. The next big indicator will be the Screen Actors Guild awards. Only time will tell.