THE STATE OF THE RACE: Best Picture
Posted On: Friday, November 6th, 2009 | Posted By: Alex Carlson
NOTE: From now on, rather than doing a sweeping update where I make predictions in all categories at once, I will be gradually updating a few categories each week, complete with an article.
The brief worries that set in earlier in the week about Precious‘s Oscar chances have quickly faded as the Metacritic reviews have doubled, bringing the movie’s score up to an impressive 76. The film opens this weekend with incredibly high anticipation as it stands out as the early Best Picture frontrunner. However, is it too early in the season for such a lead? We have all seen frontrunners rise and fall frequently during the Oscar season. No matter how good a film is, emerging as a contender puts an instant target on its back and it immediately becomes prey for vicious attacks from people who absolutely do not want it to succeed. However, if Precious goes on to a win next year, I will get some bragging rights because I kind of called it.
At this point a lot of Oscar pundits are still in disagreement about the 10 nominees and several films have yet to be seen by anybody – namely Nine, Invictus, The Lovely Bones, and Avatar. Tom O’Neill of The Gold Derby polled various Oscar journalists this week to find out where they ranked the movies so far. The films that were unanimously predicted to receive nominations were The Hurt Locker and Invictus with Precious, Up in the Air, and Up. Besides Invictus, which hasn’t been seen, the other four are looking like the certified “locks” at this point. Great reviews, great audience responses, solid cast/crews, and excellent scripts are enough to put them in top spots.
Surprisingly a few films that were thought by yours truly to be sure things are not thought to be so by the Gold Derby panel of experts. Specifically A Serious Man and Bright Star. The former is one of the best reviewed films of the year and has the Oscar-friendly Coen brothers at the helm. However, it may be the mostly unknown cast that is holding it back. The latter received great reviews and success at film festivals, but did not play well when released in U.S. theatres and buzz about Campion’s latest quickly died down. A Serious Man stays on this week’s Oscar charts, while Bright Star falls off.
Earlier this week we finally started to get a look at Clint Eastwood’s Oscar hopeful Invictus. A fantastic trailer was released preceded by an excellent one-sheet with stars Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon. Based on the trailer, I have no doubt that the stars will be getting some major Oscar buzz and this may be Damon’s much overdue chance of scoring a nomination. The film also has the social awareness factor that will no doubt score with the Academy.
Another film that the Gold Derby pundits liked more than expected was Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds. The film played well with American audiences earning about $120 million so far at the Box Office. However, post-Pulp Fiction Tarantino has not been a favorite of the Academy and the violent nature of the film may prevent it from receiving much attention at the Oscars. It did sneak in as an alternate on this week’s Best Picture predictions.
Tom O’Neill also flirts with the notion that Michael Jackson’s This Is It could be the first documentary to ever be nominated for Best Picture. I say no way, but the Oscars have been known to nominate and award people based on pity before. It could happen.
Check out the new Best Picture predictions and be sure to share your thoughts on the race below.
