BOX OFFICE: A New Low for 2010

Between the NFL season opener, Toronto Film Festival coverage, and the fact that the weather was gorgeous in much of the country, Americans had plenty of reasons to avoid the cinema this weekend. With a top 12 gross of just over $67 million this weekend now has the lowest total for all of 2010. Next weekend’s batch of new releases will probably revers that trend, but for now it’s quiet season at the movies.

Box Office Estimates
September 10-12, 2010

1) Resident Evil: Afterlife (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $27.7 million | PREDICTION: $19.8 million

I underestimated the popularity of this franchise, and it was probably also boosted by the fact that it was the only new wide release this weekend. I expect it’s total to drop quickly once next weekend’s new releases come out.

2) Takers (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $6.1 million | PREDICTION: $6.25 million

I’m mystified by the “success” of this movie, but when there are few other offerings at the Box Office and the overall total is less than $50 million, it’s hard to classify it as successful.

3) The American (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $5.9 million | PREDICTION: $7.45 million

I’m still surprised that this movie was even released in enough theatres to do the kind of business that it has. With comparable film The Town coming out next weekend, it shouldn’t stay in the top 5 once more.

4) Machete (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $4.2 million | PREDICTION: $6.7 million

If you convert it to pesos it sounds like this movie made a lot more. Machete had the biggest decline this weekend of any film in the top ten dropping 63%.

5) Going the Distance (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $3.84 million | PREDICTION: $3.4 million

This is one of the surprises of the weekend as the film did not drop any spots. It’s additional marketing must have paid off as its stars were all over talk shows this past week.

6) The Other Guys (Prediction: 10th)
ACTUAL: $3.6 million | PREDICTION: $1.75 million

One of those rare movies that improved its rank from last week despite being in its 6th week of release. The 6th through 10th place films are so close in rank that they could easily swap places when the actuals come in tomorrow.

7) The Last Exorcism (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $3.45 million | PREDICTION: $4.6 million

This horror movie was made for only $1.8 million so having a cumulative gross that is near $40 million categorizes it as a smashing success.

8) The Expendables (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $3.25 million | PREDICTION: $5.4 million

If it weren’t for the fact that this movie is in the second most theatres this weekend, it wouldn’t have done as well since it has the lowest per theatre average of any film in the top ten.

9) Inception (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $3.015 million | PREDICTION: $1.9 million

This film managed to remain at the number 9 spot for at least one more weekend. Expect it to fall out of the top ten next weekend after 9 impressive weeks.

10) Eat Pray Love (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $2.9 million | PREDICTION: $3.55 million

Julia Roberts’ movie and Sylvester Stallone’s movie entered the Box Office together. I have a feeling that they will also be going out together. Isn’t that cute?

[Source: Box Office Mojo]

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