It is kind of a given that a movie clearly targeted at young boys in the under 12 demographic will not be affected by reviews. Such was the case with Cars 2, which the critics skewered, but still managed to pull in the 5th largest opening for a Pixar movie and the 4th largest opening for a June release. The other critically panned film opening in wide release this weekend was Bad Teacher, and that also performed rather well for an R-rated comedy. Critics were pretty irrelevant at the Box Office this weekend.
Box Office Estimates
June 24-26, 2011
1) Cars 2 (Opening)
ESTIMATE: $68 million
This film earned just a couple thousand dollars less than Up to become Pixar’s 5th highest opener of all-time. I predict that where we will really see the film’s quality affecting its returns is with the proceeding weekends. It will likely not have the legs that most Pixar movies do, which will see when word of mouth gets out.
2) Bad Teacher (Opening)
ESTIMATE: $31 million
This is another film that will likely not last as a strong contender at the Box Office when word of mouth gets around. The top three movies at the Box Office this weekend all have received terrible reviews which might indicate that were headed towards that dark part of summer. The time when it’s better to go enjoy the weather outside than head into the nearest cinema.
3) The Green Lantern (2nd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $18.35 million
With a drop of 65.5% at this weekend’s Box Office, The Green Lantern is this weekend’s biggest loser by a long shot. Warner Brothers is debating whether or not to greenlight a sequel, but since it appears that it won’t come close to earning back its budget domestically, I wouldn’t be surprised if they decide against it. Or at least they might completely change out the current cast and crew and re-boot the film.
4) Super 8 (3rd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $12.1 million
I think this movie will have better legs than the three films above it and I wouldn’t be surprised if within a few weeks it is out ahead of both The Green Lantern and Bad Teacher. I stand by my assertion that it is the only good Summer blockbuster yet to be released this year.
5) Mr. Popper’s Penguins (2nd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $10.3 million
Can we just forget about the fact that this film exists? Okay, good.
6) X-Men: First Class (4th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $6.6 million
This film will continue to drop as comparable films like The Green Lantern and Transformers 3 open. It has had modest success, however, and will potentially earn back its $160 million budget before dropping out of the top ten.
7) The Hangover: Part II (5th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $5.87 million
With a cumulative gross of $243.9 million, The Hangover: Part II is the highest grossing film of the year by a pretty decent margin. Will that change with the coming of Transformers 3 and Harry Potter 8 in the next several weeks?
8) Bridesmaids (7th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $5.37 million
I’m so glad that this movie has shown the staying power that it has. With how close it is to The Hangover and X-Men, I wouldn’t be surprised if it lasted longer than them and held on for two more weekends yet. Wishful thinking.
9) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (6th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $4.7 million
Pirates 4 is the second highest grossing movie in the U.S. this year, but it is killing it overseas and has become the highest grossing film internationally. It will probably be out of the top ten next weekend, but it has had a good run.
10) Midnight in Paris (6th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $4.48 million
With a cumulative gross of $28 million and a few weekends of good performance left, Woody’s latest film is pretty close to his highest grossing of all-time, Hannah and Her Sisters. It will be close, but I believe it can reach that milestone.
Look for Transformers: Dark of the Moon to take over the number one spot next weekend with Larry Crowne having an affect on some of the comedies in the top ten.
Studio estimates are courtesy of Box Office Mojo.