BOX OFFICE: Everything Looks Familiar

This weekend’s Box Office was unsurprisingly down 54% from the booming Thanksgiving weekend and just about everything that was in the top ten this weekend had been there before. Tangled leapt in front of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 to take over the number one spot and Burlesque had a stronger weekend than expected. On the limited release landscape, Black Swan earned over $77,000 per screen which is a record for both Fox Searchlight and Darren Aronofsky.

Overall my predictions over-estimated the weekend’s totals rather significantly.

Box Office Estimates
December 3-5, 2010

1) Tangled (Prediction: 1st)
ESTIMATE: $21.5 million | MY PREDICTION: $26.5 million

Down 55% in its second weekend the film had enough legs to bump past one of the highest grossing films of the year. Tangled will definitely hang on to a high spot in the Box Office for several weekends and should have no problem surpassing other animated films Megamind and Shrek Forever After to settle behind Toy Story 3 as the second highest grossing animated film of the year.

2) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 (Prediction: 2nd)
ESTIMATE: $16.74 million | MY PREDICTION: $23.4 million

With a drop of 66% in its 3rd weekend, this Potter film sees the biggest drop of any film in the top ten. This is not surprising as fan franchises tend to be very top-heavy with most of the business coming at the start of the run and slowing down after that. Casual movie-goers do not see this type of film as there is an implication that one must have seen (and remember) all six previous films before going in. Nevertheless it still sits at a cumulative total of over $240 million and will likely remain in the top ten through the end of the year.

3) Burlesque (Prediction: 5th)
ESTIMATE: $6.1 million | MY PREDICTION: $5.75 million

The Burlesque/Megamind switcheroo is what caught me the most off-guard with my predictions this weekend as the former actually held on for a pretty strong weekend and the latter dropped significantly. Burlesque is reportedly playing well with women in the 30+ range, which is a reliable audience for buying tickets late in a movie’s run. I’m not sure about the movie’s word of mouth, but it could continue to do well in the coming weeks.

4) Unstoppable (Prediction: 4th)
ESTIMATE: $6.1 million | MY PREDICTION: $6.05 million

Even though the rest of my list is completely disheveled and nonsensical, I will be showing everybody who doesn’t know any better this single prediction as proof that I know what I’m doing.

5) Love and Other Drugs (Prediction: 7th)
ESTIMATE: $5.7 million | MY PREDICTION: $4.25 million

Five of the top ten films in this weekend’s Box Office improved their ranking over last weekend, this being one of them. With a good number of new releases headed this way next week, it will probably not hang around the top ten for much longer.

6) Megamind (Prediction: 3rd)
ESTIMATE: $5.03 million | MY PREDICTION: $7.1 million

The popularity of Tangled affected Megamind more than I expected causing it to drop from number 3 all the way to number 6. It’s per theatre average was one of the lowest in the top ten this weekend, but at $136 million overall it’s still the second highest earner in the top ten.

7) Due Date (Prediction: 8th)
ESTIMATE: $4.215 million | MY PREDICTION: $2.6 million

The Holidays can be a stressful time so it doesn’t surprise me that many people sought out a comedy where they can shut their brain off. With a drop of only 41.2% it had the strongest hold of any film at the top ten Box Office this weekend.

8) Faster (Prediction: 9th)
ESTIMATE: $3.83 million | MY PREDICTION: $2.45 million

CBS Film is having a hell of a premiere year with Extraordinary Measures ($12.068 million gross), The Back-Up Plan ($37.49 million gross) and now Faster ($18.11 million gross and counting). They better really start improving the quality of their films if they want to have  any kind of success.

9) The Warrior’s Way (Prediction: 6th)
ESTIMATE: $3.05 million | MY PREDICTION: $4.4 million

The only film that was opening this weekend did rather poorly at the Box Office, but it’s not a surprise. The overall budget for the film was a remarkably inflated $42 million, which seems very high for this type of film that had such a small release. Next weekend this movie will be out of the top ten and out of the 2010 consciousness.

10) The Next Three Days (Prediction: 10th)
ESTIMATE: $2.65 million | MY PREDICTION: $1.95 million

I predict that in the next three days, The Next Three Days will no longer be in the top ten.

[Source for Estimate: Box Office Mojo | Image: OutNow!]

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  • Mike

    “Tangled will definitely hang on to a high spot in the Box Office for several weekends and should have no problem surpassing other animated films Megamind and Shrek Forever After to settle behind Toy Story 3 as the second highest grossing animated film of the year.”

    Really? You expect it to gross more than the 240 million of Despicable Me and Shrek 4? That seems a bit far fetched and out of reach. I’d say 200 million MAX.

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