This could indicate good things for the summer movie season. The fifth movie in the Fast and the Furious franchise opened strong on the heels of May to become the largest opener of 2011. That boost managed to make this the highest grossing weekend in total for all of 2011.
Box Office Actuals
April 29 – May 1, 2011
1) Fast Five (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $86.2 million | PREDICTION: $71.4 million
In one more weekend this will easily be the highest grossing film of 2011. It’s opening is comparable to the openings of a lot of huge summer tentpoles and it will no doubt end up one of the top ten highest grossing movies of the year.
2) Rio (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $14.79 million | PREDICTION: $19.5 million
Right now the top three highest grossing films of 2011 are one-word animated family films. There’s your fun fact of the day.
3) Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $9.86 million | PREDICTION: $9.9 million
I got the totals for Madea’s Big Happy Family and Water for Elephants pretty close to dead-on, but I had them switched. Both received mixed reviews so their totals are mostly being affected by word of mouth.
4) Water for Elephants (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $9.34 million | PREDICTION: $10.2 million
This movie has a built-in audience that has probably already been out to see it. Once the summer movies kick into full gear it will drop quickly.
5) Prom (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $4.71 million | PREDICTION: $9.7 million
With Fast Five earning $15 million more than I predicted there was less to go around for the other films. This film had a measly $8 million budget so this can’t be considered a failure. It will earn that back through the weekdays.
6) Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $4.11 million | PREDICTION: $8 million
This film on the other hand had a moderately sizable budget of $30 million, which it will probably not earn back domestically. Just goes to show that animated family films are not guaranteed Box Office hits.
7) Soul Surfer (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $3.37 million | PREDICTION: $4.1 million
This film manages to stay strong and maintain its rank despite three films opening ahead of it. Total earnings are only about $33 million, but it’s definitely got legs.
8) Insidious (Prediction: N/A)
ACTUAL: $2.69 million | PREDICTION: N/A
Another film that has shown impressive legs, managing to increase its rank from 9th to 8th in its 5th weekend. It just might hang on for one more weekend even next week with Thor in the mix.
9) Hop (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $2.68 million | PREDICTION: $4.6 million
With a drop of 78% this weekend, Hop is the biggest loser. I knew that after Easter it would drop quickly and that does seem to be the case.
10) Source Code (Prediction: N/A)
ACTUAL: $2.51 million | PREDICTION: N/A
I should note that the two films I predicted would be on here and missed were Scream 4 and Dylan Dog: Dead of Night, the latter of which absolutely bombed.
[Source for Actuals: Box Office Mojo]