Toy Story 3 has tied for the third fastest film to reach $200 million after 9 days in release. However, the bigger news might be that a film that was almost unanimously disliked by critics opened with an impressive $41 million. This weekend’s Box Office indicates a lot about the attitude Americans have toward the films being released. Good films will be widely seen, stars aren’t the biggest influence on earnings anymore, and even bad movies can survive their first weekend.
Box Office Estimates
June 25-27, 2010
1) Toy Story 3 (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $59 million | PREDICTION: $81.72 million
Pixar movies usually make their dough from their ability to last in the top 5 for many weeks. Toy Story 3 had such a big start, so if it proves the Pixar staying power it is likely going to be the biggest hit of the summer. Why didn’t I see this coming?
2) Grown Ups (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $41 million | PREDICTION: $12.43 million
As Stephen Colbert would say, the market has spoken and Grown Ups has been bought into, which means it must be good. Simple rules of capitalism. I admit my unpleasant surprise about the fact that this movie achieved moderate success in its first weekend. My guess is that it will decrease heavily in the coming weekends, but I could easily be wrong again.
3) Knight and Day (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $20.5 million | PREDICTION: $20.55 million
It’s rare that I predict a Box Office take that is exactly right, so I’m pretty proud of this one. It is clear that Tom Cruise is not the penultimate movie star that he once was. His appearance in a film certainly does not guarantee Box Office success and this movie, which was marketed as a Tom Cruise vehicle, proves it.
4) The Karate Kid (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $15.4 million | PREDICTION: $18.91 million
There were no new family movies opening this weekend, so this movie held on for another decent week. It will probably dip below $10 million when Twilight: Eclipse opens next weekend as strong competition. Overall the movie was one of the surprises of the summer.
5) The A-Team (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $6 million | PREDICTION: $7.75 million
Knight and Day reaches out to the same type of audience as The A-Team, which probably lead to a bigger decrease than usual. Unlike The Karate Kid, which opened the same weekend, The A-Team will be looked back upon at the end of the summer as a big disappointment.
6) Get Him to the Greek (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $3.01 million | PREDICTION: $4.99 million
The under $10 million finishers ended much lower than I predicted this weekend, probably because Grown Ups did so much better than predicted. The film is currently at a $54 million cumulative gross and probably won’t go much higher than that.
7) Shrek Forever After (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $2.88 million | PREDICTION: $3.41 million
I was 100% on my number 5 through 10 predictions, which is a rare feat. Shrek Forever After winds down its run with a $230 million domestic cumulative gross. That probably makes Dreamworks wish they weren’t retiring the ogre.
8) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $2.8 million | PREDICTION: $3.38 million
Prince of Persia became the highest grossing video game movie of all-time last weekend and it has now passed $300 million in international gross. That all sounds impressive, but it won’t even break $100 million domestically so I wouldn’t call it a great success.
9) Killers (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $2 million | PREDICTION: $2.24 million
With Knight and Day in theatres this movie will continue to decline fast.
10) Jonah Hex (Prediction: 10th)
ACTUAL: $1.6 million | PREDICTION: $1.89 million
The film just misses breaking $10 million in its second weekend. It is a terrible movie and it fully deserves its lack of success at the Box Office. Sorry, Jonah.
OVERALL: 7 correct out of 10