With the sixth largest opening weekend of all-time, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I mercilessly destroyed the competition at the Box Office this weekend. One of my personal favorites of the year, Fair Game, expanded into enough theatres to make it into the top ten and 127 Hours made almost one million dollars while in just over 100 screens. In other words, Iâ€™m rather proud of this weekendâ€™s Box Office performance.
Box Office Estimates
November 19-21, 2010
1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $125.02 million | PREDICTION: $134.5 million
Although bringing in slightly less than I predicted, the seventh Potter film still managed to open higher than any other film in the franchise, beating out Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire by almost $25 million. The word of mouth surrounding the film also remains very positive, which bodes well for its performance in subsequent weekends. There is no doubt it will win the long Holiday weekend and has the potential to stay at number one for three straight weekends with no apparent strong competition in the pipeline.
2) Megamind (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $16.01 million | PREDICTION: $16.7 million
As I expected, Potter knocked this film down quite a bit after two weekends at number one. It has managed to break the $100 million mark to become one of the highest grossing films of the year nonetheless and it will probably continue to stay above $10 million through this coming weekend, although the upcoming release of Tangled will knock it down even further.
3) Unstoppable (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $13.01 million | PREDICTION: $12.7 million
It is not surprising that only two films broke $10 million with the success of Harry Potter. A 43% decline in its second week is not bad for this film especially considering it beat out The Next Three Days in its first week.
4) Due Date (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $8.9 million | PREDICTION: $7.1 million
This film has lost its head to head battle with Megamind, since they opened the same weekend, but its still done moderately well in its three weeks of release. It’s no Hangover, but it also has some heavier competition.
5) The Next Three Days (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $6.54 million | PREDICTION: $13.1 million
I had thought my prediction for the film was rather low, but I’ve been proven wrong as it earned half as much as I predicted. The word of mouth is rather hushed and the marketing for the film has not been very aggressive, so I would expect a large drop off for the Holiday weekend.
6) Morning Glory (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $5.2 million | PREDICTION: $4.6 million
It did not quite have the 50% decline that I expected, but 43% is close. It’s cumulative gross has not surpassed $20 million in two weeks of release, so it could definitely be classified a flop.
7) Skyline (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $3.56 million | PREDICTION: $3.4 million
The biggest loser this weekend is this low budget science fiction film which dropped 70% in its second weekend. With the number of new releases coming out for Thanksgiving, I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t stay on the list throughout the weekend.
8) Red (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $2.48 million | PREDICTION: $3.1 million
It’s hard to say whether or not this film is going to eventually break $100 million. When it first premiered I thought there would be no way, but it has shown impressive legs in its 6 weeks of release. It’s currently at just over $83 million and it could creep its way to that milestone.
9) For Colored Girls (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $2.3 million | PREDICTION: $2.8 million
The second biggest decline for films in the top ten belongs to this Tyler Perry film. Despite its cast of stars, it has performed worse than other Perry films. It seems like its struggle has been that it departs from Perry’s normal formula and is unable to reach out beyond Perry’s normal audience.
10) Fair Game (Prediction: N/A)
ACTUAL: $1.46 million | PREDICTION: N/A
I had 127 Hours on my predictions, but I’m just as happy to see Fair Game perform well. It is a mighty fine film and deserves to be seen by as many people as possible.
Next week all of these films will be competing with Tangled, Burlesque, Faster, and Love and Other Drugs. Who will be falling off the chart next week?