BOX OFFICE: ‘Karate Kid’ Surprises Competition

Not all ’80s remakes are created equal as was proven this weekend at the Box Office. The Karate Kid, the remake of the 1984 film of the same name, proved a better remake then The A-Team when it came to bringing in an audience. Both films were the only new releases to crack the top 10 this weekend at the Box Office and for one of the first times this summer, the two newest releases finished the weekend at the number 1 and number 2 spot.

Box Office Estimates
June 11-12, 2010

1) The Karate Kid (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $56 million | PREDICTION: $22.9 million

Apparently the younger Smith has just as much Box Office pull as his father. I grossly underestimated this film this weekend, which is kind of a nice change from my trend of drastic overestimates. Apparently the family audiences came out in full force this weekend as The Karate Kid, Shrek Forever After, and Marmaduke all had pretty good takes. The Karate Kid also likely benefited from positive word a mouth as the film had a fresh 69% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The release of Toy Story 3 will probably not allow this film to stay in the top five for too much longer, but for now it can enjoy its glory as one of the biggest openings of the summer.

2) The A-Team (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $26 million | PREDICTION: $34.4 million

The audience for The A-Team consists of the type of people who read reviews, so the film’s poor critical reception likely affected its Box Office haul. The Karate Kid probably stole some of the thunder from The A-Team as early summer releases often play better with families than adults. School just got out so kids aren’t sick of going out to the movies and spending time with their parents just yet. This film might hang on for a decent rank in the next several weeks as there isn’t really any direct competition coming out for a few weekends.

3) Shrek Forever After (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $15.8 million | PREDICTION: $15.3 million

After the first two films this weekend, I actually did remarkably well on my predictions this weekend. Shrek Forever After held on for a remarkably good performance in its fourth weekend, surpassing $200 million for cumulative gross. The film probably won’t come close to the $300 million mark, but it will likely finish with a decent $240 million.

4) Get Him to the Greek (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $10.1 million | PREDICTION: $12.4 million

The Jonah Hill/Russell Brand comedy held on for a decent 4th place finish in its second weekend, bringing its total gross to $36.5 million. However, it’s definitely not going to be this summer’s The Hangover, and it likely won’t even manage to make more than $100 million. However, it’s still not completely terrible for an R-rated comedy.

5) Killers (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $8.2 million | PREDICTION: $7.6 million

The film dropped 48.4% in its second weekend, one of the biggest drops of the top ten films. Bad reviews have influenced it mildly, but overall it is doing pretty well for the small ad campaign that it had.

6) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $6.6 million | PREDICTION: $5.2 million

As I mentioned above, this is one of the only weekends this summer where I have actually under-predicted the Box Office totals. That’s a nice change of pace in a summer that has been full of disappointing flops at the Box Office. Prince of Persia is a considerable flop for a Jerry Bruckheimer film that cost $200 million to produce and will not make more than $100 million domestically. However, it has showed better Box Office staying power than Sex and the City 2, which opened the same weekend.

7) Marmaduke (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $6 million | PREDICTION: $4.6 million

It dropped 48.3% in its second weekend and will only continue to fall further. It’s had dismal reviews and plenty of competition to keep it out of the race for the Box Office.

8) Sex and the City 2 (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $5.5 million | PREDICTION: $5.0 million

It’s theatre count decreased by about 20%, which encouraged its Box Office take to decrease by 55.2% in its third weekend. The rate that it is declining, I don’t anticipate it to stay in the top ten for one more weekend, adding the film to the growing list of 2010 summer flops.

9) Iron Man 2 (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $4.6 million | PREDICTION: $3.3 million

It just narrowly missed the $300 million mark in its 6th weekend in the Box Office with a cumulative total of $299.3 million. On Monday or Tuesday it will likely become the first summer movie to surpass that milestone. However, I still maintain my prediction that it will not be the summer’s biggest earner. Toy Story 3 and Twilight: Eclipse will both surpass the $300 million mark in a shorter time than Iron Man 2.

10) Splice (Prediction: 10th)
ACTUAL: $2.9 million | PREDICTION: $2.8 million

Luckily Splice was made on a “micro-budget” of $30 million because it is doing very poorly at the Box Office. In its second weekend the film dropped 61.3%, which was the biggest decline in the top ten. It’s at $13 million for total gross and will probably just barely break the $20 million mark.

[Source for Estimates: Box Office Mojo]

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