Remember this week, dear readers, for this is the week that I predicted every single film in the weekend Box Office top ten. It has never happened before and I don’t anticipate it will happen again soon, but I’m going to enjoy the brief success while I can. Overall the Box Office is up 0.7% over last weekends’ record setting opening by Jackass 3D, continuing the impressive October that this year has had.
Box Office Estimates
October 22-24, 2010
1) Paranormal Activity 2 (Prediction: 1st)
ESTIMATE: $41.5 million | PREDICTION: $34.4 million
Just like audiences flocked to the theatre to get grossed out last weekend, they also came out this weekend to get the shit scared out of them. Paranormal Activity 2 recorded the largest opening weekend by a supernatural horror film and seemed to do very well with the 18 to 25 demographic. This film’s budget was just slightly larger than the $11,000 that got its predecessor made, but at $3 million it’s still one of the thriftiest films in Hollywood. With a larger than 1000% return in one weekend, expect this formula to be replicated in years to follow.
2) Jackass 3D (Prediction: 2nd)
ESTIMATE: $21.6 million | PREDICTION: $24.6 million
A 57% decline from 1st to 2nd week was larger than I expected, but it makes sense considering Jackass and Paranormal Activity 2 were targeting the same demographic. This is not going to be the type of film that has legs to stand on and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it face a similar decline next weekend with the gross-out enthusiasts heading to see Saw 3D.
3) RED (Prediction: 3rd)
ESTIMATE: $15 million | PREDICTION: $12.15 million
Older audiences opted for this mindless action movie over the deep, emotional Hereafter. Technically they only opted for this film because it was in more theatres and RED actually lost in the averages total. Action movies tend to stick around the Box Office for a while.
4) Hereafter (Prediction: 4th)
ESTIMATE: $12 million | PREDICTION: $11.8 million
It’s deceiving to look at the percentage change for Hereafter considering Box Office Mojo lists it as well over 5,000%. Clint Eastwood’s meditation on life and death had a budget of $50 million and it is likely not going to recoup that during its theatrical run. However, this is not the type of film that should have been marketed as a mainstream film. A limited release and a smaller budget might have helped this film.
5) The Social Network (Prediction: 5th)
ESTIMATE: $7.3 million | PREDICTION: $7.7 million
This weekend’s gross brings The Social Network‘s cumulative gross to over $73 million. I expect RED and Jackass 3D to drop behind The Social Network in the coming weeks and I would not be surprised if it managed to stay in the top 5 next weekend with only one real potential competitor being released.
6) Secretariat (Prediction: 6th)
ESTIMATE: $6.92 million | PREDICTION: $7.1 million
Not only was I correct in the order of the films in the top ten this weekend, but I was also rather close in the actual gross amounts. With a 25.8% drop this week it had one of the smallest declines and it has proven that it has somewhat decent legs at the Box Office.
7) Life As We Know It (Prediction: 7th)
ESTIMATE: $6.15 million | PREDICTION: $6.2 million
This film’s trajectory could help prove that reviews do matter to a film’s performance. As the more negatively reviewed film it started ahead of Secretariat and close to The Social Network, and in subsequent weeks it has fallen behind a movie that has received generally positive reviews.
8) Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole (Prediction: 8th)
ESTIMATE: $3.175 million | PREDICTION: $3.45 million
This children/family movie broke $50 million in earnings this week and has managed to stay in the top ten for an impressive 5 weeks. It never had a huge weekend, but it has slowly been chipping away at the competition and as a result has shown excellent staying power.
9) The Town (Prediction: 9th)
ESTIMATE: $2.72 million | PREDICTION: $1.77 million
Don’t count The Town out yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if it managed to hang on to the top ten for just one more weekend next week.
10) Easy A (Prediction: 10th)
ESTIMATE: $1.75 million | PREDICTION: $1.2 million
Who would have predicted an $8 million mostly star-less teen comedy that is loosely based on a Nathaniel Hawthorne novel would stay in the top ten for six weeks and earn over $58 million?
Total Correct: 10 out of 10.