Three out of the top four films who have the all-time Thanksgiving earnings record are in the Harry Potter franchise. This weekend The Deathly Hallows comes in at number four behind The Sorcerer’s Stone, The Goblet of Fire, and Toy Story 2. It was actually a closer face-off at the weekend Box Office than expected with Tangled right on the heels of Deathly Hallows. The biggest winner for per theatre average was The King’s Speech, which set a 2010 record with $87,500 earned on each of its 4 screens.
Box Office Estimates
November 26-28, 2010
1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I (4,125 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $50.35 million
After two weekends, this film has already earned $220.35 million and is quickly on its way to becoming the highest earner of the Potter franchise. It dropped 59.7% in its second weekend, which would have been more significant, were it not for the fact that its earnings were spread out over the long Holiday weekend. It has a strong chance of reigning at the top of the Box Office for a third straight weekend.
2) Tangled (3,603 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $49.1 million
This Disney feature actually earned more than Deathly Hallows in per theatre average, but because it was in fewer theatres it had a lower overall gross. The word of mouth on the film was mostly positive, which could keep it at a good rank for a few upcoming weekends.
3) Megamind (3,411 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $12.85 million
After Deathly Hallows and Tangled, there wasn’t much competition. Megamind actually had a drop of only 19.8%, which is not too bad for its fourth weekend. With current earnings of over $130 million it is already one of the most successful films of the year.
4) Burlesque (3,037 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $11.8 million
The second highest opening of the weekend started strong on Wednesday and Thursday, but dropped off a bit for the weekend to fall a ways behind Megamind. It probably won’t be in the top ten for too long especially with some high profile releases coming in December.
5) Unstoppable (3,183 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $11.75 million
It’s not a hugely impressive weekend for this film, but it still managed to beat two of the four new releases. It may manage to surpass Burlesque when the actuals come in tomorrow.
6) Love and Other Drugs (2,455 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $9.85 million
The opening weekend figure seems less than impressive, but a $4,000 per theatre average is not too bad. This movie had some marketing issues as it couldn’t decide if it should be directed towards the mature adult audience or the romantic rom-com audience. It seems like neither crowd came out in full force, but it may manage to hold on for a few more weekends.
7) Faster (2,454 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $8.71 million
I predict that this film will drop off drastically in the coming weeks with a similar trajectory to Skyline. However, it was also made on a relatively low budget so with its moderate earnings it can already be classified a somewhat success.
8) Due Date (2,555 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $7.3 million
Before the time this film’s theatrical run is over it will probably have earned over $100 million. That makes me very sad.
9) The Next Three Days (2,564 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $4.84 million
A 26% decline was smaller than I was thinking, but this movie has still had a very unimpressive Box Office trajectory. It won’t survive a third weekend in the top ten and will probably face another large drop next weekend.
10) Morning Glory (2,441 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $4.03 million
After the 10th spot the films drop off pretty significantly this week, but it is worth noting that 127 Hours and Fair Game placed at 11 and 12, just missing the top ten despite neither film being in more than 400 theatres. It’s good to see audiences are choosing quality.