The only film opening in wide release this weekend with a positive Rotten Tomatoes ranking is a Disneynature documentary about lions. Many people are off work this weekend for the Easter Holiday, so grosses may be higher than the past several weekends, but with the limited selection of good movies that may not be true. Will a new movie take the crown or will last week’s winner be back on top.
Box Office Predictions
April 22-24, 2011
1) Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family
PREDICTION: $28.4 million
Combine Tyler Perry and Madea in one movie title and the movie is guaranteed to gross around $100 million. I have never seen a single Tyler Perry comedy so I can’t speak to what makes them so appealing, but I don’t anticipate they were made for people like me.
PREDICTION: $26.8 million
This family friendly animated film had a strong performance last weekend and should do well this weekend with families coming together for the Holiday. It’s potential returns may be slightly diminished by the release of African Cats, but probably not by much.
3) Water for Elephants
PREDICTION: $18.9 million
This novel is widely popular and will draw out its fans to the theatres this weekend. It will also draw out numerous twi-hards who can’t resist the appeal of Robert Pattinson in a romantic role. Of all the films releasing this weekend I anticipate this will have the worst legs and probably fall out of the top ten rather quickly.
PREDICTION: $11.1 million
An Easter movie should do pretty well over Easter weekend, even though it’s in its 4th week of release. After this weekend it will undoubtedly drop off fast, especially with more family movies coming soon.
5) African Cats
PREDICTION: $8.7 million
These Disneynature films usually do better overseas than they do in the United States, but it should still have a decent opening. It is the type of movie that deserves to be seen on the big screen, so it will probably bring out nature movie fans and some families.
6) Scream 4
PREDICTION: $8.3 million
When a movie like this opens far lower than expectations, it does not bode well for its upcoming weekends. It should have a pretty big drop this weekend as it heads out of the top ten within a week or two.
7) Soul Surfer
PREDICTION: $5.6 million
This film has been doing surprisingly well in its release, especially considering the small amount of publicity it has gotten. It will probably hold on for two more weekends and outlast several movies that opened after it.
PREDICTION: $4.9 million
With this weekend’s gross the film will inch closer to a cumulative gross of $50 million. That is not bad for a March horror release.
PREDICTION: $4.6 million
Strong word of mouth has allowed this film to show pretty decent legs and it should hang on for one more weekend in the top ten. Its cumulative gross won’t quite reach $50 million, but it has performed well nonetheless.
10) Source Code
PREDICTION: $3.1 million
The Conspirator could sneak into the top ten this weekend, but it is not adding too many more theatres. It barely made it in last weekend and this spot will probably belong to Jake Gyllenhaal.
What movie are you seeing this weekend?