BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: Always a ‘Bridesmaids’, Never a ‘Thor’

Could a newly opening summer comedy manage to top a superhero film at this weekend’s Box Office? A female dominated comedy nonetheless? It would be a nice shake-up to the summer movie season and it definitely could happen.

Box Office Predictions
May 13-15, 2011

1) Thor (2nd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $28.7 million

I am predicting that the race for the weekend will be closer than most other websites because I genuinely think there is interest in Bridesmaids. However, superhero movies rule the Box Office and even though Thor is in its 2nd weekend, it should have no trouble staying on top. This amount would put it above $100 million.

2) Bridesmaids (Opening)
ESTIMATE: $26.9 million

Even though I have not seen Bridesmaids and have no opinion on its quality, I’m really rooting for it. I would love for a female-centric comedy to have great success at the Box Office if for no other reason than to show the studios that it can be done.

3) Fast Five (3rd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $19.7 million

This movie has been dominating Thor overseas and is the highest grossing movie of 2011 in the U.S. There is a huge audience base that loves this movie and will likely see it a 2nd or 3rd time, keeping its Box Office high in its 3rd weekend.

4) Priest (Opening)
ESTIMATE: $12.2 million

It would not surprise me at all if this movie bombed this weekend. It has gotten terrible reviews and had a weak marketing campaign and I can’t imagine there is much positive word of mouth. This comic book adaptation could very easily be the Scott Pilgrim of this summer.

5) Jumping the Broom (2nd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $8.4 million

This movie beat Something Borrowed last weekend, but fell a little behind in the daily Box Office. However, I have a feeling that Bridesmaids will steal more of Something Borrowed‘s audience than Jumping the Broom‘s so it should be able to retake the lead this weekend.

6) Something Borrowed (2nd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $7.7 million

See above explanation.

7) Rio (5th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $5.1 million

There still aren’t any big Summer releases that are geared specifically towards families so this film should still be able to bring in a decent part of the cinema-going audience. It is currently the 3rd highest grossing film of 2011, but it should easily surpass Rango this weekend to become 2nd.

8) Water for Elephants (4th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $3.1 million

This film will have slowly crept its way to a $50 million gross before it falls out of the top ten (which will probably be in two weekends). That’s not a bad performance considering the movie received lukewarm reviews.

9) Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (4th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $2.4 million

This movie had a pretty significant drop last weekend and should see something similar this weekend. It might hold on to one more considering there is only one new wide release next weekend, but I have a feeling one of the limited releases might beat it.

10) Soul Surfer (6th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $1.8 million

This movie has been in the Box Office top ten for 6 weeks and I still know nothing about it.

What movie will you be seeing this weekend?

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  • That Soul Surfer is really doing good. I haven’t seen it and it’s not in a lot of talks but it’s been hanging there for several weeks (compared to Scream 4)

  • Jose

    Are you just comparing Priest to Scott Pilgrim because they’re comic book movies? Because other than that they’re extremely different, I mean Scott Pilgrim was actually loved by its fans.

    Priest is actually closer to Jonah Hex in terms of everything. I shudder at the fact that I was invited to go see it a few hours ago.

  • You’re right, I think Jonah Hex is a better comparison. I was only comparing ‘Priest’ and ‘Scott Pilgrim’ in terms of marketing and Box Office potential. I sincerely doubt that ‘Priest’ is any where near the quality entertainment that ‘Scott Pilgrim’ provided.

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