BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: Easy Alpha and Devil Town

After a few dud weekends in a row the Box Office is ready to light back up again with with four new films getting wide releases and several limited releases that should gain some traction. Resident Evil: Afterlife is still the film in the largest number of theatres, but it shouldn’t find itself back on top this weekend with the release of an adult-themed heist movie, a teen comedy, a populist horror movie, and a family film. Which of these will win?

Box Office Predictions
September 17-19, 2010

1) The Town (2,861 theatres)
PREDICTION: $26.7 million

This film seems to have gotten the best marketing campaign of all the new releases this weekend and it has a star-studded cast including film stars Ben Affleck, Jeremy Renner, and Chris Cooper and TV star John Hamm. It has gotten generally good reviews and should successfully bring in older and younger adults.

2) Easy A (2,856 theatres)
PREDICTION: $19.1 million

It might be hard to sell a teen comedy without a Michael Cera or Jonah Hill type character, but Emma Stone looks great in the trailers so it should do well. I will also note that this film is endorsed by my wife who is a high school English teacher.

3) Alpha and Omega (2,625 theatres)
PREDICTION: $11.9 million

It has been a few weeks since a film aimed solely at families with children has been released and it may be well-received as a result. The animation looks despicable and the reviews have not been favorable, but it’s 3D boost and ability to draw in young children should help it do all right.

4) Devil (2,810 theatres)
PREDICTION: $10.4 million

I honestly think that this movie might suffer by attaching M. Night Shyamalan’s name to all of its marketing. Even though The Last Airbender did considerably well at the Box Office, I think that enough people have wised up to the fact that Shyamalan’s films are not very good to prevent this film from being a success.

5) Resident Evil: Afterlife (3,209 theatres)
PREDICTION: $9.6 million

I’m predicting a higher than average drop this weekend mostly because of the addition of four new wide releases. It hasn’t played all that well at the weekday Box Office and should not hang around the top ten much longer after this weekend.

6) The American (2,457 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.2 million

One of the biggest factors influencing the potential success of this film is that several independent films open in limited release that could infringe on its audience. It’s still had a considerably successful run considering how non-audience friendly it is.

7) Takers (2,139 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.0 million

This film should surpass the $50 million mark this weekend. Not bad for a film that has had barely any marketing campaign and looks just…just awful.

8) Machete (1,704 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.1 million

This film loses 36% of its theatres this weekend with the onslaught of new releases, which will heavily affect its take. Luckily it is kind of the only film of its kind right now and should continue to draw in its unique, exploitation craving audience.

9) Going the Distance (2,007 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.6 million

The movie’s Box Office trajectory is actually opposite of the film’s title.

10) The Expendables (1,854 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.1 million

The 10th spot is pretty much up for grabs this weekend. The Expendables, Eat Pray Love, The Other Guys – take your pick. I think Stallone has enough love to allow him to hang on one more week.

What are your picks for the weekend?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo | Image: Beyond Hollywood]

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  • Jose

    Double feature with The Town and Easy A this weekend!

  • Quinn

    @ Jose – Great idea

  • Jose

    Just saw the Friday estimates and Inception is still in the top 10! It’s number 8 and the Expendables is down at #13.

  • Quinn

    WHao “Inception” Number 8!!!! What is this its tenth week of release??

  • Jose

    Yeah, isn’t that impressive?!?

  • Quinn

    Very!

  • Jose

    Just hope it stays like that throughout the weekend though. And I am glad that Easy A had a well deserved big Friday debut.

  • Jose

    Hey Alex, since Easy A is endorsed by your wife, are you going to see it and write a review for it?

    And for anyone else who saw it, am I alone in thinking that Emma Stone deserves a Golden Globe nomination (Musical or Comedy) for this film?

    Also most of your predictions were either right or close.

  • I’m really hoping to see it. I’ve been swamped the past few weeks and my movie seeing time has been limited, but I’m really hoping to squeeze it in soon.

  • Quinn

    I just saw “Easy A” and it was fantastic. The first half was funnier than the second, but the first half hilarious enough to make it hands down one of the funniest movies of the year. And the acting was great, especially Emma Stone.
    A-

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