I do not consider this the actual start of summer considering two-thirds of the days this weekend technically take place in April. However, this weekend’s Box Office receipts may surpass next weekend when Thor opens to mark the official start to the summer movie season. It will be interesting to find out how many “summer” movies Fast Five outperforms and if Fast Five can make it into the year-long top ten. I would not at all be surprised.
Box Office Predictions
April 29 – May 1, 2011
1) Fast Five (Opening)
PREDICTION: $71.4 million
I am predicting that Fast Five will open higher than most of the blockbusters coming our way this summer. It has the right combination of star-power, brand name recognition, and explosions. Plus, it has actually gotten decent reviews. I anticipate it will drop off quickly once the summer movie season actually begins, but for now it should have no problem landing on top.
2) Rio (3rd Weekend)
PREDICTION: $19.5 million
This movie should easily surpass $100 million this weekend as animated family films continue to prove their might at the Box Office. Even with the summer movies on the way, it’s a few weeks before Kung Fu Panda or Cars 2, which means this movie could stick around for a while.
3) Water for Elephants (2nd Weekend)
PREDICTION: $10.2 million
Even though this movie was beaten rather easily by Tyler Perry last weekend, it has since caught up in the Weekday Box Office totals. I’m completely guessing, but I think Fast Five might steal more of Tyler Perry’s audience than it will for Water for Elephants.
4) Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (2nd Weekend)
PREDICTION: $9.9 million
Tyler Perry’s movies typicall open strong and quickly diminish and this should be no different, especially after a lower than expected opening last weekend. This will probably be the weekend’s biggest loser if it actually drops this much.
5) Prom (Opening)
PREDICTION: $9.7 million
I think this release date was a little poorly planned as I believe prom for most high school students is over (someone correct me on this). However, it will still probably bring in some high school and college students who prefer nostalgia over adrenaline.
6) Hoodwinked: Hood vs. Evil (Opening)
PREDICTION: $8.0 million
Family movies rule the Box Office. Even poorly marketed, poorly reviewed family movies that are sequels to films that weren’t that successful to being with. If Gnomeo and Juliet can make $100 million, why not this one?
7) Dylan Dog: Dead of Night (Opening)
PREDICTION: $6.8 million
I had to look this movie up on IMDb because I have barely heard a thing about it. With its horror-comedy genre it looks like it could be mildly successful, but it has to let people know it exists in order for that to happen.
8) Hop (5th Weekend)
PREDICTION: $4.6 million
Last weekend Hop was the only movie to increase its earnings, but that was only because of the Easter weekend so it is not a fair gauge. I expected this film to drop quickly after Easter was over and I think we will see that this week.
9) Soul Surfer (5th Weekend)
PREDICTION: $4.1 million
Remarkable legs should keep this film in the top ten for a 5th weekend. It hasn’t earned that much in cumulative gross, but it’s on this list longer than any of the films it opened alongside.
10) Scream 4 (3rd Weekend)
PREDICTION: $3.7 million
I think this will beat out Insidious as it is more fresh and should still inspire curiosity from movie-goers enough to get them in the theatre.
What movie(s) are you seeing this weekend?