BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: Geeky vs. Girlie vs. Grunty

Everyone seems set on categorizing the audiences that will go out to the new releases this weekend – grown men to The Expendables, grown women to Eat, Pray, Love, and young adult men and women to Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. I’m actually planning to see all three, which I guess makes me some sort of hermaphroditic hybrid. I actually think this weekend offers one of the most exciting of the summer in terms of Box Office competition. The three premiering films could finish in any order this weekend. Here’s where I think they will end up:

Box Office Predictions
August 12-14, 2010

1) The Expendables (3,270 theatres)
PREDICTION: $29.75 million

The star-power in this movie should be enough on its own to haul in an impressive opening weekend take, but it also has the benefit of reaching both younger and adult male audiences. It’s also the new release that is opening in the most theatres so if the per theatre averages turn out to be similar, Expendables has the advantage.

2) Eat, Pray, Love (3,082 theatres)
PREDICTION: $24.25 million

Sony Pictures has not marketed this movie that strongly, which means that they are counting on the women who are fans of the book to come out in droves. That may be the case and with the added starpower of Julia Roberts it may attract some casual fans who haven’t read the novel.

3) Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (2,818 theatres)
PREDICTION: $20.5 million

I’m going out on a limb and predicting that there are enough movie and comic book geeks out there to make this movie a hit, even though from what I’ve heard from people outside of the movie geek sphere, there is little interest in this film. I think this movie will surpass Inception because it will draw from much of the same audience, but it will definitely not score Inception-sized numbers.

4) The Other Guys (3,651 theatres)
PREDICTION: $15.0 million

This comedy wasn’t all that successful in its first weekend isn’t likely to compete with this weekend’s batch of new releases. If word of mouth is positive on this movie it might surpass this weekend’s new movies in subsequent weeks, but for now it has too much competition.

5) Inception (3,120 theatres)
PREDICTION: $11.25 million

Christopher Nolan’s film has enjoyed three weekends at number one and one weekend at number two. It’s not a huge loss for it to drop to number five this weekend considering it has already earned $235 million. One of the big tests will be if Inception can make up some ground on the new releases in coming weeks of it is going to drop down the charts fast.

6) Step Up 3-D (2,439 theatres)
PREDICTION: $7.75 million

It will still be dominating the 3-D market this weekend as none of the new releases will be competing with it. I’m not sure what audience will be competing for audience with this movie. Maybe Eat, Pray, Love?

7) Dinner for Schmucks (3,046 theatres)
PREDICTION: $6.5 million

Even though Dinner for Schmucks has not performed better than Despicable Me during the weekday Box Office, it is actually getting a theatre count increase this weekend whereas almost every other wide release film is losing screens. The Other Guys and Scott Pilgrim will probably be competing directly for audience, but for now it is going to do all right.

8) Despicable Me (2,918 theatres)
PREDICTION: $6 million

With all of the new releases this weekend none of them are actually directed at the family audience. Despicable Me and Cats and Dogs are the only two films still in wide release that are targeted at families. Even children have figured out that the latter film is crap, so Despicable Me is their fall back film.

9) Salt (2,834 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.35 million

Angelina Jolie’s film will be looking to break $100 million this weekend with its current earnings of $96 million through Wednesday. It should have no problem doing that unless the testosterone takes over the Box Office and completely foils Salt‘s chances.

10) Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore (2,728 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.6 million

Hopefully this will be the last weekend that I’m forced to type the title of this film into an entry on this website. Hopefully.

What do you think?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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