This weekend will see one of the best reviewed films of the year go up against one of the worst. Take a wild guess at which one will win at the Box Office. To be fair the more poorly reviewed film is opening in 600 more theatres and has a more family friendly rating.
Box Office Predictions
April 1-3, 2011
1) Hop (3,577 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $26.9 million
How many Easter movies can you name off the top of your head? Other than The Passion of the Christ, I’ve got nothing. Holiday movies with their family friendly premises typically rule the Box Office, but rarely do films in April have much traction. This film has gotten negative reviews from most of the critics, but it’s critic-proof and will draw in families regardless.
2) Source Code (2,961 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $20.4 million
Currently this film is sporting an 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, which puts it alongside Rango as the most critically acclaimed studio film of 2011. That alone should help its opening weekend numbers slightly, although positive reviews are more likely to give a film legs rather than start it strong out of the gate. It may not premiere higher than Hop, but I predict that it will pass it up within two weeks.
3) Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules (3,169 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $13.1 million
This film surprised when it beat out Sucker Punch last weekend and it should hold on for another decent showing. It has some competition this weekend in Hop, but it should still do well as more families head out to the theatre.
4) Limitless (2,838 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $11.7 million
This movie has done surprisingly well considering it limped in for its opening weekend and had a relatively minor marketing campaign. I have heard pretty positive word of mouth so I expect it to have one or two strong weekends before we get too close to the beginning of summer.
5) Insidious (2,408 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $9.9 million
This film does not have a wide enough release or strong enough word of mouth or star-power to open in the top three. Horror movies don’t often do well outside of Halloween season and I suspect that this one will do particularly poorly opening opposite an Easter movie.
6) Sucker Punch (3,033 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $8.4 million
This film has not even been doing well-enough to beat Limitless in the weekday Box Office. With Source Code opening, which targets a similar demographic, and the overwhelmingly negative reviews, the Sucker Punch ship is sinking fast.
7) The Lincoln Lawyer (2,707 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $6.8 million
When this opened alongside Limitless I expected McConaughey would beat Cooper, but I was proven wrong. The Lincoln Lawyer also had a higher budget which makes Limitless truly the winner.
8) Rango (<3,645 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $4.7 million
With another animated film set to open on top this weekend Rango is going to drop off fast. However, it has enjoyed a very impressive run with a cumulative gross that should easily surpass $110 million this weekend.
9) Paul (2,543 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $4.1 million
It will edge slightly closer to earning back its $40 million budget, but even after this weekend it will still be about $10 million away. Luckily, it should perform well internationally to help it recoup its investment.
10) Battle: Los Angeles (2,263 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $3.0 million
Despite losing almost 1,000 theatres Battle: LA should hang on for one more weekend in the top ten and end its run with less than $80 million domestically.
What movie are you seeing this weekend?
[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]