BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: Paranormal Jackass

Last weekend a team of men getting kicked in the crotch and swimming in fecal matter earned the largest October opening of all-time. This weekend crudely shot home video footage of a family being tormented by a demon will try to complete with them. Do you notice how carnal our culture has become?

Box Office Predictions
October 22-24, 2010

1) Paranormal Activity 2 (3,216 theatres)
PREDICTION: $34.4 million

The success of the original and the positive early word of mouth should propel this film to an easy win this weekend. The original film opened slower and worked its way up to a number one spot at the Box Office. This one is more likely to start strong and drop off quickly as Halloween comes and goes.

2) Jackass 3D (3,111 theatres)
PREDICTION: $24.6 million

A fifty percent decline seems about right for Jackass in its second weekend. It’s going to be competing directly with Paranormal Activity 2 for the 18-25 year old audience and the time of year will likely incline that audience to head to the latter.

3) RED (3,272 theatres)
PREDICTION: $12.25 million

The reviews for RED have not been very positive, but as I like to point out the reviews do not matter in terms of Box Office. The hugely crowd-pleasing cast of RED will likely keep it from dropping more than 50% in its second weekend as the older audiences are drawn out to see it in theatres. However, the presence of Jackass and Paranormal Activity may keep old people away from the cinema altogether.

4) Hereafter (2,181 theatres)
PREDICTION: $11.8 million

Clint Eastwood’s films have never been Box Office smashes and the buzz for his latest seems rather muted. Matt Damon certainly has the power to draw a crowd, but the film’s proclivity to force the audience to face their own mortality may keep those looking for a cinematic escape out of the theatre.

5) The Social Network (2,921 theatres)
PREDICTION: $7.7 million

I wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t the last weekend that The Social Network stays in the top five. I feel its trajectory will be comparable to Inception in that its weekly declines throughout its run are very small.

6) Secretariat (3,108 theatres)
PREDICTION: $7.1 million

Despite the considerably weak opening from this film it has done a nice job of distancing itself from Life As We Know It. It’s average will probably be significantly better, but because it is in fewer theatres its overall numbers will be close.

7) Life As We Know It (3,019 theatres)
PREDICTION: $6.2 million

Life As We Know It will under-perform this weekend as it is in the 5th most theatres, but will not likely appear in the top 5. This type of performance is not unexpected for Katherine Heigl rom-coms.

8) Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole (2,236 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.45 million

This movie does not perform well during the weekdays which tricks me into thinking that it won’t perform over the weekends, but previous weekends have shown that is not the case.

9) The Town (1,918 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.77 million

This weekend will give The Town a chance to break $85 million potentially. However, it will probably not break $100 million or stay in the top ten for another weekend after this.

10) Easy A (1,632 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.2 million

I’m going out on a limb and predicting that Easy A will stay with The Town. The two films opened together and will drop out of the top ten together.

What movie will you be seeing this weekend?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo | Image: Cinema Blend]

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  • Andrew R.

    Well, I’m seeing PA2 based on the good review thus far. Plus, I will be forever grateful to the first one for making the Saw films end a little earlier. (I actually liked the first Saw, but the sequels? Oh no…)

  • Jose

    I was going to see PA2, but then the plansot cancelled so I’ll probably have to wait till next weekend =(.

    As for the “positive word of the mouth” for PA2, I don’t think so, 3/4 of the people at mu University are already bashing it.

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