BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: Record Weekend for ‘Harry Potter’?

It is a few hours away from the midnight release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part One and the film has already broken several records. Deadline has reported that its midnight premiere will have it opening in more theatres than any other film of all-time. It will be opening tonight in 3,700 locations with roughly 2,000 of those already sold out as of this morning. It’s pre-sales have already totaled $25 million as of last night and Fandango and MovieTickets.com are both reporting that tickets for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part One makes up for over 95% of their pre-sales.

Will it break any records this weekend? Here are my predictions:

1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part One (4,125 theatres)
PREDICTION: $134.5 million

The all-time November opening weekend record belongs to The Twilight Saga: New Moon, which opened last year with $142.8 million. I don’t expect The Deathly Hallows to break that record, but it will come awfully close. Expect thousands of screens to sell-out this weekend as legions of Potter fans clamor to see the film multiple times.

2) Megamind (3,779 theatres)
PREDICTION: $16.7 million

This animated film has shown impressive legs in its two weeks of release. It should continue to draw in the G and PG film going audience with children too young for the thrills of Harry Potter.

3) The Next Three Days (2,564 theatres)
PREDICTION: $13.1 million

The release of this film has been all but drown out by Harry Potter, which is a shame because in another weekend it would likely do pretty well. It may draw in some of the casual movie-goers who show up to sold out screenings of Harry Potter and some adults who prefer to wait to see The Deathly Hallows rather than enter a theatre full of eager teenagers.

4) Unstoppable (3,207 theatres)
PREDICTION: $12.7 million

The reviews for this film have been strong and the word of mouth should be as well. It has the advantage of more screens than The Next Three Days, but it also did not perform all that strongly in its opening week.

5) Due Date (3,229 theatres)
PREDICTION: $7.1 million

It has not performed that well at the daily Box Office, but it will also benefit from adults who are trying to avoid a theatre full of teens. Also, the film’s marketing doesn’t seem to have slowed down at all, which should keep it on peoples’ minds.

6) Morning Glory (2,544 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.6 million

The star power of Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton could keep this film moderately successful, but a 50% decline in its second week would not be at all surprising. The film does have its champions, but it’s not the type to be a strong contender at the Box Office.

7) Skyline (2,882 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.4 million

The film had an unimpressive opening last weekend and the word of mouth is not positive at all. It’s low budget allows it to still be considered a success, but with direct competition from Harry Potter it should have the biggest percentage decline of the week.

8) Red (2,034 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.1 million

This film has had pretty impressive success with over $80 million in gross and 5 weeks in the weekend top ten. It probably has the gusto to hang on for at least two more weeks as the post-Potter releases are pretty slim.

9) For Colored Girls (1,216 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.8 million

This film had the largest decline last weekend and it loses almost 1,000 screens this weekend. It’s decline should be pretty large this weekend and it probably won’t make it onto the top ten at all next weekend.

10) 127 Hours (108 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.0 million

127 Hours has been dominating the per theatre averages over the last several weekends and this should be no different as it expands by 86 screens. It will have to have a very good weekend to earn this much, but I have no reason to suspect that it won’t.

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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  • It’s nice to see a three-digit-million prediction i tihnk it will break Twilight’s record to be honest.

  • Angel E.

    I think it will break stupid Twilight’s record too.
    I can only imagine if it got to 150, then what the damage part 2 will create.

  • I like how the differece between first place and second place is over 100 million…

  • Quinn

    I SAW IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! JUST GOT BACK!!!! BY FAR THE BEST ONE IN THE SERIES, IMO!

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