BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: ‘Salt’ vs. ‘Inception’

There is no question that the Angeline Jolie action film Salt will not earn enough money to beat Inception‘s opening last weekend. But will it earn enough to beat Inception‘s second weekend and premiere at number one? Here’s what I think.

Box Office Predictions
July 23-25, 2010

1) Salt (3,612 theatres)
PREDICTION: $39.7 million

Angeline Jolie has enough star power to bring in a decent audience. Casual moviegoers will likely be drawn to this type of action-thriller with a big name attached.

2) Inception (3,792 theatres)
PREDICTION: $36.6 million

Inception dropped to less than $10 million a day as the week went on, which was a faster drop than I expected. I think it will still have a decent showing, but not enough to edge out Salt.

3) Despicable Me (3,600 theatres)
PREDICTION: $20.7 million

This animated movie should have no problem surpassing the $150 million mark this weekend. It’s one of the few films that is not a new release, but still getting an expanded theatrical count.

4) Ramona and Beezus (2,719 theatres)
PREDICTION: $16.4 million

Families with young children will be the only ones that head to the theatre to see this one. Selena Gomez is apparently a big deal on the Disney Channel, so this could be bigger than I think.

5) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (3,121 theatres)
PREDICTION: $11.6 million

The Twi-hards will make it out for one more $10 million+ weekend. It should be a steep drop-off after Sunday as its theatre count declines rapidly.

6) The Sorcerer’s Apprentice (3,504 theatres)
PREDICTION: $10.7 million

The film didn’t do too badly in its first weekend, but it’s numbers have been declining quickly. It barely held off some of the films that have been in theatres for weeks and I don’t expect it to do well in its second attempt.

7) Toy Story 3 (2,766 theatres)
PREDICTION: $8.7 million

Two or three more weekends and it will pass the $400 million mark. Unless something comes along this winter and blows it away, I believe that Toy Story 3 will be the number one film of 2010.

8) Grown-Ups (2,859 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.5 million

This is looking like it’s going to end up as the number one live-action comedy of the summer. That fact is simply tragic.

9) The Last Airbender (2,127 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.2 million

Not a great weekend for this M. Night Shyamalan piece of garbage, but since it has already exceeded $100 million, I fear that a sequel may be inevitable.

10) Predators (1,846 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.9 million

Unfortunately this film will probably not exceed $50 million cumulative gross, which may mean an end to the Predators franchise. Too bad, because I heard this installment was quite good.

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  • Jose

    Not too sure about Ramona & Beezus, the marketing was bad, so a lot of people don’t know of the movie, and there’s several pissed off fans of the books that will not be watching it, other than that the rest of the predictions look solid.

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