BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: ‘Tangled’ Takeover

Even though Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I will be expanding its lead over the other films in cumulative gross this weekend, it is actually looking like another film will be moving up and taking over. Disney’s Tangled just barely missed the number one spot last weekend by less than a half million dollars. With no significant new releases this weekend, there is a great opportunity for the family audiences to flock to the cinema and put a new film on top.

Box Office Predictions
December 3-5, 2010

1) Tangled (3,603 theatres)
PREDICTION: $26.5 million

Throughout the weekday box office Tangled has lagged behind Harry Potter, but that should change this weekend. Tangled has an “A+” rating from Cinemascore and this positive word of mouth should carry it to weekend success.

2) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I (4,125 theatres)
PREDICTION: $23.4 million

The core of the Harry Potter fan base has likely made it out to see this movie once or twice already, which could lead to a stronger decline in its third weekend. It will still bring its total to $250 million this weekend as it approaches $300 million and a billion worldwide.

3) Megamind (3,173 theatres)
PREDICTION: $7.1 million

Megamind faces some stiff competition from Tangled for family audiences, but it should still be on enough 3D screens to help it make a decent earning. This amount would be a drop of about 40%, which is not too bad for a 5th weekend.

4) Unstoppable (3,152 theatres)
PREDICTION: $6.05 million

This movie’s budget was $100 million and it is definitely not going to recoup that in domestic gross. However, remaining in the top 5 for four straight weeks is not a terrible performance.

5) Burlesque (3,037 theatres)
PREDICTION: $5.75 million

This is a predicted drop of about 50%, which is not bad for a second weekend. The reviews on Burlesque have not been very positive, but it has a Cinemascore of A- and has been able to draw in a large amount of the female demographic. It will probably hang on for at least two more weekends.

6) The Warrior’s Way (1,622 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.4 million

This film is not getting a very big opening so it actually has to have a decent per theatre average to get to this spot. I don’t know anything about this film so I can’t speculate on what the audience interest might be like, but it seems like the small type of film that will do modest figures and fall out of the top 10 quickly.

7) Love and Other Drugs (2,458 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.25 million

Another film that should expect a slightly higher than 50% decline in its second weekend. The film has been playing well with the under-25 demographic and should continue to do so with no big releases coming this weekend. There has also been a lot of recent press on the film with Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway appearing naked on the cover of Entertainment Weekly.

8) Due Date (2,450 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.6 million

Holding steady at the 8 spot in its 5th weekend should be this road trip comedy that appeals to the college age audience. It’s not terribly funny and shouldn’t be the type of film that earns many second trips to the theatre. However, it is still on a large number of screens and does not have much competition to knock it out of its place.

9) Faster (2,470 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.45 million

Faster has been doing decently well at the weekday Box Office landing ahead of Megamind and Due Date, but as the weekend approaches its prospects are looking bleak. The Cinemascore for the movie is a C+, which is pretty low and it doesn’t have enough star power to keep it strong.

10) The Next Three Days (2,236 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.95 million

There is no reason that The Next Three Days should not manage to stay in the top ten unless the minor theatre count increase for 127 Hours increases its earnings in a significant way.

What movie are you seeing this weekend?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo | Image: OutNow!]

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