BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: Wolfpack Versus Wolverine

There is only one new wide release coming out this weekend and it should have no problem taking the crown from the reigning champion. X-Men: First Class will probably not open quite as big as the original X-Men films, but it should definitely be one of the highest releases this summer. In the limited release market we will see Beginners, Submarine, Beautiful Boy, and Film Socialisme getting very small openings and The Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris expanding. Could one of those sneak into the top ten?

Box Office Predictions
June 3-5, 2011

1) X-Men: First Class (3,641 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $69.9 million

In my original Summer Box Office predictions I did not predict that X-Men: First Class would make it into the top ten list for the entire summer. Seeing the buzz that is now surrounding the film the days leading up to its release may have convinced me otherwise. It probably won’t stay on top for more than a week, but if it opens this big it could potentially break $200 million.

2) The Hangover: Part II (3,615 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $35.8 million

Word of mouth shouldn’t be too strong on this film as even casual movie-goers have not responded very positively. I wouldn’t mind if it even managed to drop below $30 million this weekend.

3) Kung Fu Panda 2 (3,952 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $29.1 million

This remains the biggest family movie in wide release which means it should continue to do pretty well. Films like Rio and Rango hung around the top of the Box Office for a while and this should be no different.

4) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3,966 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $18.6 million

Currently the highest grossing movie of 2011 in the Worldwide Box Office and soon to be number one in the United States. Can it hold on for a while or will it be passed by The Hangover?

5) Bridesmaids (2,916 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $13.9 million

This is the movie that I am most rooting for and I hope it manages to stay in the top 5 for at least one week beyond this one (although that’s unlikely). If you haven’t been to the movies in a while and are looking for something great – see Bridesmaids!

6) Thor (2,780 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $4.2 million

With a comparable superhero movie opening this weekend this movie should be the biggest loser. Thor should be proud of its run, however, as it has been one of the biggest hits of the summer.

7) Fast Five (2,237 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $3.0 million

This gets a big theatrical count decline this weekend, but as of now it still reigns as the number one movie of the year. It should also become the first to pass $200 million.

8) Midnight in Paris (147 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $2.8 million

This film almost doubles its theatre count this weekend but it also will probably not be able to maintain its stellar per theatre average, especially with The Tree of Life expanding and other high profile limited releases coming out this weekend.

9) The Tree of Life (20 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $0.9 million

Limited releases rule this weekend with this film likely to have the best per theatre average and earn just enough to sneak into the top ten.

10) Jumping the Broom (589 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $0.8 million

This film’s theatre count is comparable to competitor Something Borrowed, but Jumping the Broom has had a better per theatre average so that should be the one that makes the cut.

What movies are you seeing this weekend?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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