BOX OFFICE PREDIX: Another Record Weekend?

The two biggest releases of the weekend have already opened in theatres at this point. One of them will be fighting to set a new record, the other will be fighting just to make its budget back. I have absolutely no desire to see either.

Box Office Predictions
July 2-4, 2010

1) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (4,468 theatres)
PREDICTION: $94.7 million

On Tuesday night, Eclipse had the largest midnight release of all-time earning an estimated $30 million. The next day it added $38 million to that total to have the highest all-time Wednesday opening gross and second highest single day gross of all-time just behind its predecessor New Moon. This weekend it will be attempting to add about another $100 million to that total to give it one of the top 5 largest 5-day grosses of all-time. After destroying New Moon in its midnight release haul, I expected it to dominate in single day gross as well, but it did not. Therefore, I don’t think it will beat any records in its opening weekend. Whose going to complain about $94.7 million, though?

2) Toy Story 3 (4,028 theatres)
PREDICTION: $32.3 million

I give it two weeks before Toy Story 3 is back in front of Eclipse. At this point I don’t think anybody doubts that Toy Story 3 is the movie of the 2010 summer and it will continue its impressive run on its way to $300 million this weekend. The reason being – the movie is actually good! Learn that lesson, Hollywood!

3) The Last Airbender (3,169 theatres)
PREDICTION: $28.6 million

If the weather is nice around the country this weekend (which it sounds like it will be) this movie doesn’t stand a chance. It does not have the established base of die-hard fans like Twilight does and it has received some of the worst reviews of the year. People will probably choose to sit by the pool or blow themselves up with fireworks before they head in to the theatre to see this.

4) Grown Ups (3,534 theatres)
PREDICTION: $18.9 million

Eclipse and Airbender won’t really compete with Grown Ups in terms of audience this weekend. However, the adults may stray away from the theatre if they know there will be an infestation of Twi-Hards. Also, word of mouth will hopefully get around that the movie stinks.

5) Knight and Day (3,104 theatres)
PREDICTION: $10.2 million

I could just see Tom Cruise shaking his head and wondering how Taylor Lautner is a bigger star than he is. The Cruise-Diaz vehicle may have gotten a few good reviews, but it looks too much like a cookie cutter action movie and audiences just aren’t interested. Maybe Tom’s Les Grossman movie will put him back on top?

6) The Karate Kid (3,109 theatres)
PREDICTION: $9.1 million

This weekend should bring the movie’s overall total to over $150 million. Not bad for a film with a young star whose only marketability is the fact that he is the offspring of action star Will Smith. It probably won’t break $200 million domestic, but overall solid performance so far.

7) The A-Team (2,135 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.4 million

The A-Team gets a rather large theatrical count decline this weekend, but it’s still a popular choice for drive-in movie theatres (the ideal setting to see this type of film). Adults may continue to keep it in the top ten, but overall it will do low business.

8) Shrek Forever After (957 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.2 million

After the A-Team, there are no other films that are in more than 1,000 theatres this weekend. Shrek Forever After is the closest, which is a big reason why it will probably finish 8th. Another reason why is that it still has a draw for young children and families who don’t rush out to see movies right away.

9) Get Him to the Greek (880 theatres)
PREDICTION: $0.8 million

If Grown Ups decreases a lot from bad word of mouth than this film may get one more weekend of decent business. It probably won’t make a million dollars, but decent business nonetheless.

10) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (600 theatres)
PREDICTION: $0.6 million

With theatre counts and prediction totals this low it really could be anyone’s game. I think Prince of Persia may have one more weekend in it after it got some buzz last weekend for becoming the highest grossing video game movie of all-time.

Do you think Twilight sets any Independence Day records?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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