BOX OFFICE PREDIX: Battle of the ’80s Remakes

A remake of a 1980s television show goes head to head with a remake of a 1980s movie this weekend at the Box Office. Each film’s intended audiences are very different, so we will find out whether its the young ones seeking summer action or the older folks looking for a nostalgia trip that will come out to the theatre in bigger force this weekend.

Box Office Predictions
June 11-13, 2010

1) The A-Team (3,534 theatres)
PREDICTION: $34.4 million

The film’s PG-13 rating will allow it to bring in the teenage audience as well as the adults who remember the television show. The film has not gotten positive reviews, but it has the advantage of being released during one of the least exciting weekends of the summer. While it will likely win the weekend, I don’t expect it to be a major contender at the summer Box Office especially after Toy Story 3 and Jonah Hex get released next weekend.

2) The Karate Kid (3,663 theatres)
PREDICTION: $22.9 million

I highly doubt that this film will attract many fans of the original franchise. Everything about the trailers and what has been said in the interviews makes it seems like this film is trying hard to depart from the first Karate Kid films. This is definitely going to attract a mostly younger and family audience, which will put it in competition with Shrek.

3) Shrek Forever After (3,868 theatres)
PREDICTION: $15.3 million

The film will pass $200 million this weekend as it hangs on for a 4th straight strong performance. Shrek Forever After will definitely not catch up to Iron Man 2, so right now it is sitting strong as the second highest grossing film of the summer. However, The Karate Kid and next weekend’s Toy Story 3 will majorly cut into its audience over the next several weeks.

4) Get Him to the Greek (2,700 theatres)
PREDICTION: $12.4 million

As far as I can tell, word of mouth on this film has been mostly positive. It probably won’t pull a “Hangover” and continually increase its ranking at the Box Office throughout the summer mostly because the summer’s best offerings (hopefully) are still to come. I could see Get Him to the Greek hanging on to the top 5 for longer than Shrek, but I don’t think it will be in for the long haul.

5) Killers (2,859 theatres)
PREDICTION: $7.6 million

Last weekend this film had the benefit of no reviews and zero word of mouth on the quality of the film. However, once the film got released, the word was negative throughout the social networks. I assume that will significantly decrease its Box Office take in its second weekend.

6) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (3,108 theatres)
PREDICTION: $5.2 million

Throughout the weekend, it has been a neck and neck battle between this film and Sex and the City 2. However, typically its the younger audiences that go to movies over the weekend in higher numbers than adults. Prince of Persia has the advantage with the younger audiences.

7) Sex and the City 2 (2,750 theatres)
PREDICTION: $5.0 million

Not only do younger audiences go to movies more on the weekend, helping Prince of Persia, but SATC2 is also getting a more significant theatre count decline this weekend. I’m really surprised by the unimpressive Box Office of this film. I had it pegged as one of the biggest movies of the summer. I can’t say that I’m disappointed.

8) Marmaduke (3,213 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.6 million

I’m predicting pretty low numbers at this weekend’s Box Office, which means I may actually be close for once. Marmaduke has been averaging over $1 million throughout the week, but I think with The Karate Kid taking much of its audience, it’s not going to do much better than $4.6 mil.

9) Iron Man 2 (2,305 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.3 million

Iron Man 2 is probably 2 weeks away from being the first movie of the summer to break $300 million. It gets a huge theatrical count decline this week, which will bring down its weekend total. It won’t be in the top ten next weekend, but for now its staying strong.

10) Splice (2,450 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.8 million

This film doesn’t play with major audiences, but it definitely found a cult following. I don’t think anybody expected it to be one of the summer’s big contenders, but two weekends in the top 10 isn’t bad.

There you have it. Care to share your predictions?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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