BOX OFFICE PREDIX: ‘Iron Man 2′ vs. ‘Robin Hood’

This weekend will be one of the many head to head battles in store for the summer. Unfortunately for Universal Pictures, some of their noble attempts at publicity for Robin Hood may have backfired so the race isn’t going to be as close as it could have been. Here are my predictions for the week:

Box Office Predictions
May 14-16

1) Iron Man 2 (4,390 theatres)
PREDICTION: $58 million

After lower than predicted numbers last week, Iron Man 2 has been going strong throughout the weekdays. Since its main competition this week has experienced a highly exposed bomb with the critics, Iron Man 2 should have the stuff to hang on for week number 2.

2) Robin Hood (3,503 theatres)
PREDICTION: $38.4 million

Opening the Cannes Film Festival is usually a hugely beneficial position for a film to be in. However, the sophisticated international critics at the fest were not feeling Ridley Scott’s newest effort and the reviews have hurt the film’s chances this weekend. It also is being released in about 1,000 fewer theatres than Iron Man 2. The adult movie goers will likely be flocking to this film, but younger audiences will be seeing other offerings this week.

3) Letters to Juliet (2,968 theatres)
PREDICTION: $18.1 million

The film played well with audiences at sneak previews on Mother’s Day and the film’s advertising has been a good job of targeting the Notebook audience. Teenage girls and their moms will flock to the movie, but based on the reviews I don’t imagine this film will stay in the top 10 for too long.

4) Just Wright (1,831 theatres)
PREDICTION: $13.6 million

I can’t imagine too many people would rush to see this movie over the other offerings this weekend. However, it will still probably do just over $10 million in its only weekend in the top 5. I’m surprised that it is a Fox Searchlight release considering they do a lot more indie comedies and dramas.

5) A Nightmare on Elm Street (3,075 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.6 million

This horror remake has enjoyed a respectable run at the box office as it broke the $50 million mark this week. As the summer releases pick up the pace, it is going to continue to drop down the charts.

6) How to Train Your Dragon (2,620 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.9 million

The film just broke the $200 million mark as it becomes one of the highest grossing films of the January through April months. Some new children and family fare will be cropping up in the next several weeks and knocking it down, but for now it can enjoy the impressive run that it deserves.

7) Date Night (2,481 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.2 million

Two films that might make better date movies have been released this week with Letters to Juliet and Just Wright, but this film should hang on to a spot in the top ten for at least one more week.

8) The Back-Up Plan (2,497 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.8 million

This also will be competing with the newest date movies listed above, yet it’s still getting promoted. J-Lo was on ‘Lopez Tonight’ this week plugging it.

9) Furry Vengeance (2,695 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.5 million

Even though this terrible film hasn’t been doing that well during the weekday Box Office, its main competition (Death at a Funeral, Clash of the Titans…) are getting huge theatre count declines. It’ll unfortunately be sticking around.

10) Babies (543 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.1 million

This is one of the few films on the list that is getting a slight theatrical count increase this week and its a movie about babies, which means it will never get old.

Those are my predictions for this week. Care to share yours?

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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