This is going to be another one of those in-between weeks that is sandwiched between to huge opening weekends. Last weekend’s Twilight: Eclipse had one of the biggest openings of the summer and next weekend Inception will be looking to set some new records. For now we have to settle for some decent additions to the summer box office.
Box Office Predictions
July 9-11, 2010
1) Despicable Me (3,474 theatres)
PREDICTION: $33.33 million
The marketing for this movie has been enormous and I don’t foresee this film making its budget back, especially with Toy Story 3 still in people’s minds. The reviews are good and the family audience has proven strong this summer at the Box Office, but I still don’t imagine this film will set any records. Especially considering it is still in fewer theatres than Toy Story 3 and Twilight: Eclipse.
2) Predators (2,669 theatres)
PREDICTION: $24.4 million
R-rated action movies typically aren’t as strong as family films at the Box Office, which is why I predict this movie to fall behind Despicable Me. It also doesn’t quite have the starpower that a summer release usually needs to be able to take off. The main thing the film has going for it is that it is part of a well-loved franchise that has a large base of fans.
3) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (4,468 theatres)
PREDICTION: $20.7 million
In its second weekend Eclipse is still in more theatres than any movie ever. Throughout the week it has been showing impressive numbers, but it is the type of franchise that declines quickly once its die-hard fans have had their share. This weekend and next will be its real test to determine it’s staying power.
4) Toy Story 3 (3,753 theatres)
PREDICTION: $17.95 million
I saw this movie this Thursday evening at a completely packed theatre. For Toy Story 3 to be filling theatres while heading into its third week is quite a feat and it indicates that it’s going to continue raking in the dollars for weeks to come. It has passed $300 million and will likely get passed the $400 million mark before the summer is through.
5) The Last Airbender (3,203 theatres)
PREDICTION: $14.2 million
The movie is not good, but that hasn’t stopped it from doing quite well in its first full week at the Box Office. Quality does affect the Box Office and as word continues to get out about the film it will likely continue to decline.
6) Grown-Ups (3,463 theatres)
PREDICTION: $8.6 million
This film is the exception that proves the rule I stated in my Last Airbender reasoning. Adam Sandler is critic proof and no matter how bad his movies get, audiences inexplicably line up.
7) Knight & Day (2,628 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.2 million
The film is sitting at just over $50 million as a total and doesn’t look like it will break $100 million. I guess studios might be re-thinking the alleged star power of Tom Cruise.
8) The Karate Kid (2,458 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.4 million
Another family movie opening means more competition for The Karate Kid. It has done surprisingly well, however, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a sequel was announced soon.
9) Cyrus (200 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.1 million
The film wasn’t even in 100 theatres last weekend and it still managed to crack the top ten. It’s gotten positive word of mouth and it expands to 200 theatres this weekend, which means it should greatly expand its audience. If it received a wide release it would probably be in the top 3 this weekend.
10) The A-Team (1,236 theatres)
PREDICTION: $0.91 million
It’s enjoyed a nice theatrical run, but that run is just about over.
What movie will you be going to see this weekend?
[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]