BOX OFFICE PREDIX: ‘Sex and the Shitty’

It’s sort of cheating to make these predictions on a Friday with last night’s midnight release results already in, but I had some internet connection issues that prevented me from getting them up last night. These predictions will probably be more accurate than usual due to that. Oh well, here goes:

Box Office Predictions
May 28-31, 2010

1) Sex and the City 2 (3,445 theatres)
PREDICTION: $81.1 million

The movie is sitting at a terrible 15% on Rotten Tomatoes, but this type of movie is critic proof. Your mom, sister and all of their girlfriends will probably be headed out in droves to see this film. I don’t expect it to have much staying power after this weekend, but you never know.

2) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (3,646 theatres)
PREDICTION: $42.6 million

This Disney action movie is in more theatres than Sex and the City 2, but it definitely doesn’t have the following that the New York ladies do. It’s a tradition for video game movies to bomb, but it’s also a tradition for Jerry Bruckheimer films to do very well. Which one will have a bigger influence? Only the sands of time will tell.

3) Shrek Forever After (4,367 theatres)
PREDICTION: $29.9 million

It’s still the biggest kids movie in wide release and will likely have impressive numbers in its second week of release. However, many people speculated that it was actually the high ticket prices that hurt Shrek instead of helped it. If people are tight on money, they may not be willing to shell out the big bucks for a 3-D movie.

4) Iron Man 2 (3,804 theatres)
PREDICTION: $14.1 million

This weekend will probably see the biggest decline for Iron Man 2, since Prince of Persia will be competing directly with it for audience. At this rate it will take a few weeks for it to hit $300 million, meaning it probably won’t be the biggest money maker of the summer.

5) Robin Hood (3,373 theatres)
PREDICTION: $8.9 million

Ridley Scott’s action movie has done worse than many expected and it continues its decline this week. At this rate the film will be lucky to break $100 million making it one of the biggest disappointments of the summer. Too bad, because I actually thought it was a pretty decent movie.

6) Letters to Juliet (2,825 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.6 million

It’s been hanging on to the spot right behind Robin Hood all week and it is only getting a small theatre count decline. It will probably be competing with Sex and the City 2 for audience, but it should still be able to make the top 6.

7) MacGruber (2,546 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.9 million

After completely bombing in its first weekend can it really hang on to the number 7 spot for 2 weeks in a row? Probably, reason being Just Wright, which beat it last weekend, is getting a pretty significant theatre count decline this week. Also, the decent reviews for MacGruber might help it a little.

8) Just Wright (1,195 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.9 million

If this film beats MacGruber for the second week in a row while released in fewer than half the theatres, so help me I will laugh.

9) Date Night (1,126 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.4 million

Steve Carrell and Tina Fey have enjoyed a nice run in the top ten, but I have a feeling that after this weekend all of that will come to an end.

10) A Nightmare on Elm Street (891 theatres)
PREDICTION: $0.8 million

It gets a huge theatrical count decline this week, but it will probably still hang on to a top ten spot for one week longer. It will either be this film or another surprise like last week’s Kites.

There you have it. Your thoughts? Predictions?

[Source for Theatre Count: Box Office Mojo]

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  • Owen

    annnnnnnnnnnnd Just Wright beat MacGruber. You can laugh now. Also, you were WAY OFF on SATC2. Maybe, just maybe, moviegoers are getting smarter?

  • As much as I was against the fourth Shrek film, it’s still better than the “SATC” sequel, which is an overlong and annoying display of conspicuous consumption. If you hated the punny dialogue of the show, this is NOT the movie for you (this from a fan of the show).

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