BOX OFFICE PREDIX: ‘Shrek’ Him to the Greek

Four new movies are premiering this week that could potentially overtake Shrek for the number one spot this weekend. However, it is definitely going to be a tough battle as the audiences for all films will be competing with one another. The Academy Award rule of thumb is when the top two films split votes, a third film can sneak in and win it all. The same may be happening with audiences this weekend.

Box Office Predictions
June 4-6, 2010

1) Shrek Forever After (4,386 theatres)
PREDICTION: $28.5 million

In its 3rd weekend, Shrek 4 still has the widest theatrical release, which is why I anticipate it will stay on top. It’s been proven to be an audience favorite while the new releases have not gotten a sufficient marketing campaign. It’s only competition this weekend is Marmaduke, but even stupid people should realize how bad that movie is going to be.

2) Get Him to the Greek (2,696 theatres)
PREDICTION: $20.1 million

This film has one of the widest releases for an R-rated comedy ever, which should help give it one of the highest opening weekends for such a film. Still, since its rating significantly restricts its possible audience it won’t be able to overcome Shrek.

3) Marmaduke (3,213 theatres)
PREDICTION: $16.6 million

The movie looks awful and the reviews seem to agree, but the type of people who would attend this movie aren’t the review-reading type. It’s going to have some competition with Shrek for audience, but it should still manage to bring in the families with children under 12 demographic. I would say it will also bring in fans of the comic strip, but I don’t think many of those exist.

4) Killers (2,859 theatres)
PREDICTION: $13.8 million

This film isn’t being screened for critics, so I’d like to think that will affect its bottom line, but probably not. Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl look like they’re phoning in their performances in the trailer and it’s a cheap knock-off of the upcoming Tom Cruise/Cameron Diaz film Knight and Day. We’ll soon find out what people think.

5) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (3,646 theatres)
PREDICTION: $12.2 million

This film has actually been gaining on some of its competition over the short work week. It will likely beat Sex and the City 2, the film that edged it out last weekend. The film also has the benefit of being the top “action” movie of the week, which has a built in audience.

6) Sex and the City 2 (3,445 theatres)
PREDICTION: $11.6 million

It’s a bad movie and even its devoted fans are starting to realize it. I hope this movie’s performance has preemptively ended any possibility of Sex and the City 3, but with the level of creativity that Hollywood seems to have these days it wouldn’t surprise me.

7) Splice (2,540 theatres)
PREDICTION: $9.9 million

Of all the new wide releases this weekend, this film has the smallest theatre count. It also has the disadvantage of being an R-rated horror film by a foreign director. Three words in that statement spell box office trouble – “R-rated,” “horror,” and “foreign.”

8) Iron Man 2 (3,007 theatres)
PREDICTION: $8.4 million

It’s once again going to fall short of the coveted $300 million domestic earnings mark this week. This week it gets the biggest theatre count decline of its run so far and despite still being in more theatres than most of this week’s new releases, it will lose a lot of its audience to the new films.

9) Robin Hood (2,581 theatres)
PREDICTION: $5.6 million

Just like Iron Man 2, this movie gets its biggest theatrical count decline of its run this weekend. However, it’s been playing much better throughout the week than other films and there are no new releases to compete for its spot.

10) Letters to Juliet (1,962 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.9 million

For some reason I’ve been seeing more commercials for this film in the past week than I have in its entire theatrical run. I don’t know if they’re trying to revive its Box Office hopes, but I think the attempt is all in vain.

Overall I’m predicting a moderately higher Box Office this weekend than the past few weekends and that is mostly because of the four new releases. Share your predictions in the comments!

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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