BOX OFFICE PREDIX: Shrek to Tackle Competition

With the rate that Iron Man 2 has been decreasing, it stands to be knocked off of the top spot this weekend. Two wide releases look to be competing to take its place (although it’s not really a competition).

Box Office Predictions
May 21-23, 2010

1) Shrek Forever After (4,359 theatres)
PREDICTION: $92.2 million

The Shrek franchise has proven to be a huge Box Office magnet both in theatres and on Broadway. The third movie didn’t do quite as well as the second movie and I don’t imagine this film will do as well as the third, although the marketing campaign has been strong. This movie’s release also gives families with young children the first reason to go out to the theatres since How to Train Your Dragon (or Furry Vengeance).

2) Iron Man 2 (4,177 theatres)
PREDICTION: $22.2 million

It’s in more theatres than MacGruber so it will probably beat it out this weekend. This is when we really get to see if Iron Man 2 has legs because the next several weekends it has some huge competition.

3) MacGruber (2,551 theatres)
PREDICTION: $16.3 million

I honestly can’t imagine this film being any good at all. The last several Saturday Night Live films that have been terrible and those were released at a time when SNL was actually funny. The recent writing for SNL has been awful and I imagine a lot of that will transfer to the film.

4) Robin Hood (3,505 theatres)
PREDICTION: $14.9 million

Ridley Scott’s movie didn’t play well with audiences in its first week of release and despite the fact that it is in more theatres than MacGruber, I think the awful SNL movie will attract more of the high school audience.

5) Letters to Juliet (2,975 theatres)
PREDICTION: $8.2 million

The film has been lingering at the number three spot all week and will likely stay there for its second weekend in release. It’s overall gross will probably eventually get up to $40 million. Not great, but not bad for Amanda Seyfried.

6) Just Wright (1,831 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.6 million

Queen Latifah and Common have been hitting the late night talk show circuit promoting the film, but it may all be for naught. It’s not a great movie and doesn’t have a big audience following.

7) A Nightmare on Elm Street (2,125 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.9 million

It’s one of the wide releases that gets the smallest theatrical count decline this week. Plus it has been beating How to Train Your Dragon and and Date Night in the daily Box Office.

8) How to Train Your Dragon (1,869 theatres)
PREDICTION: $2.3 million

It’s getting a huge theatrical count decline and more importantly the number one film, Shrek Forever After, will be stealing all of its audience. Dragon has enjoyed a very impressive run, but it’s time to come to an end.

9) Date Night (1,869 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.9 million

MacGruber might be considered its competition, but I doubt their audiences will significantly overlap. With the season premieres of The Office and 30 Rock this week attention might be on Tina Fey and Steve Carrell.

10) Furry Vengeance (1,369 theatres)
PREDICTION: $1.2 million

Both Furry Vengeance and The Back-Up Plan get huge theatrical count declines this week so it’s either ones game. Last weekend I hugely underestimated the vengeance of the furry, so I don’t plan on making the same mistake twice.

There you have it. What do you think?

[Source for Theatre Count: Box Office Mojo]

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  • Jose

    Shrek 4 might actually cross the $100 million mark since its in 3D, and have you not read the early reviews for MacGruber? Obviously everything bad about SNL did not transfer to the film.

  • The movie studio only let critics who they knew would like ‘MacGruber’ see the film before its release. As more reviews pour in its rating is dropping fast. It’s down from 90% to 63% on Rotten Tomatoes in the past 24 hours. It will be considered rotten before long.

    Also, I was tempted to predict higher numbers for ‘Shrek 4’, but every estimate for a major release I’ve done this summer has been an over estimate. I thought I’d shoot low for once.

  • Jose

    LOL you didn’t shoot low enough for Shrek 4.
    Yeah you pretty much right about MacGruber though.

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