BOX OFFICE PREDIX: ‘Toy Story 3’ to Put a Hex on ‘Jonah’

Two movies are opening this weekend that are vastly different in terms of audience draw and quality. One of those two films is poised to have the second (or possibly first) biggest opening of the summer. This weekend will also reveal whether or not several of the past weekend’s hits have legs to stand on now that they’re faced up against one of the biggest films of the summer.

Box Office Predictions
June 17-19, 2010

1) Toy Story 3 (4,028 theatres)
PREDICTION: $126.6 million

This movie deserves to be the biggest hit of the summer so far. It’s Pixar at the top of their game and easily one of the best films of the year. It will also have the added benefit of opening in over 4 thousand theatres and being released in both IMAX 3D and Disney Digital 3D. I predict this film to just miss Iron Man 2‘s $128 million opening, but it will definitely catch up in the coming weekends. Twilight: Eclipse will probably have a higher opening weekend, but I’m thinking that Toy Story 3 will be the biggest movie of the summer. It’s just so good. [My Review]

2) The Karate Kid (3,663 theatres)
PREDICTION: $26.1 million

This weekend will be the real test for this family movie as it tries to stand up against the 3D power of Toy Story 3. It will probably be the back-up choice for people who show up to sold out screenings of Toy Story 3 and it also has the summertime benefit of being double billed at drive-in theatres. If this movie can hang on to number two for a second week, it will probably stay there at least once more.

3) The A-Team (3,544 theatres)
PREDICTION: $11.5 million

This movie has found a niche with an older audience and those seeking fun thrills. The reviews for the movie weren’t terrible and it will likely linger in the middle of the pack for a few weekends as no major competition for it is out right now.

4) Jonah Hex (2,825 theatres)
PREDICTION: $9.7 million

I have expressed my disdain for this movie and I was glad to see that I was not the only one when the Rotten Tomatoes rating came in at a whopping 6%. When word-of-mouth gets out on how terrible this movie is the audiences will flee. Don’t expect it to stay in the top 10 for more than two weekends. [My Review]

5) Shrek Forever After (3,207 theatres)
PREDICTION: $7.7 million

The biggest competition for this movie is opening this weekend. Not only is Shrek Forever After getting a sizable theatrical count decline this weekend, but Toy Story 3 is going to be taking away from its 3D screens as well. This means the easiest way to see Shrek Forever After is going to be in two simple dimensions for a normal price. That will decrease its overall take.

6) Get Him to the Greek (2,584 theatres)
PREDICTION: $6.4 million

It’s still the biggest R-rated comedy at the Box Office and that has a built in audience. It’s been only declining steadily over the past several weekends and will likely stay in the middle of the top 10 as other movies fall behind it over the next several weekends. [My Review]

7) Killers (2,619 theatres)
PREDICTION: $4.4 million

I kind of wonder if all the hype and previews for Knight and Day have helped Killers‘ overall take, considering they appear to be practically the same movie. I’m surprised at its decent performance, but it’s heavily on the decline.

8) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (2,605 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.8 million

In its 4th weekend it gets a 16.2% theatrical count decline and is about to go strong for one last weekend in the top 10. Overall it has been beating Sex and the City 2 at the weekend Box Office, but losing at the Daily Box Office.

9) Sex and the City 2 (1,680 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.6 million

This has been beating Marmaduke and Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time at the daily box office, but it gets an almost 40% theatrical count decline this weekend.

10) Marmaduke (2,495 theatres)
PREDICTION: $3.3 million

It has been beating Prince of Persia at the daily box office, but it gets a big theatrical count decline this weekend and huge competition with Toy Story 3.

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  • Jose

    Toy Story 3 will definitely have an over $100 million opening, it’s safe putting it on $126 million.And since word of the mouth is extremely positive, people will come in the masses. And Toy Story 3 is easily the best of the year.

  • The only way I’m going to go to see Toy Story 3 this weekend is if I got to a late showing. I’m not especially keen on seeing movies with a whole lot of kids (crying, screaming, talking during the film – no thanks)… that is until I have some of my own, but then I’ll be able to deal with it :).

    As for Hex, it’s a tough call. Action film up against not a lot of other action films (except A-Team). Though of course if Megan Fox’s non-Transformers BO history is any indicator, it’ll be lucky to do $5m.

  • Andrew R.

    Univarn-I saw Toy Story 3, and the kids would not shut up during the trailers and short, but during the actual movie they shut up.

    It was a dad with the group who ruined it.

    -Everytime Ken appeared on screen, he would shout “GAY!” at the top of his lungs. (Though, he has a point…)
    -During a scene involving Big Baby, he yelled, “THEY’RE HEEEEERE!”
    -During this dramatic scene involving Jess and Buzz, where it looks like Buzz is dead, he started singing “MY HEART WILL GO ON…”

    And get this-one of the KIDS told him to shut up. Loudly. Everyone in the theater laughed.

    Long story short: bored parents are worse than interested kids.

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