BOX OFFICE PREDIX: Will ‘Iron Man 2′ Break the Record?

I am immediately rescinding my summer Box Office predictions from earlier this week. Today it was released that Iron Man 2 is tracking to have one of the biggest openings of all-time. The Dark Knight currently holds that record having made $158.4 million in its opening weekend. Can Iron Man 2 top Batman? Here are my predictions:

Box Office Predictions
May 7-9, 2010

1) Iron Man 2 – 4,380 theatres
PREDICTION: $144 million

There is no doubt that Iron Man 2 is going to have one of the biggest weekend openings of all-time. It represents the start of the summer season, it has already sold out hundreds of midnight showings, and it has the largest theatrical release ever. However, I don’t think that it will have what it takes to topple The Dark Knight‘s record. Call me a skeptic, but I would love to see this film prove me wrong.

2) A Nightmare on Elm Street – 3,332 theatres
PREDICTION: $10.2 million

This remake didn’t even do that well when it had no Box Office competition. Now facing one of the top grossing films of the summer it does not stand a chance. This weekend is going to be one of the times when there is only one film that matters and everything else is just noise and fore people who showed up to see Iron Man 2 only to find out it is sold out.

3) How to Train Your Dragon – 3,003 theatres
PREDICTION: $8.2 million

This is still the fall-back option for family movie night, especially families with kids too young for Iron Man 2. However, in its sixth week everybody who was planning to see the film has by now so its weekend total is going to be its smallest ever.

4) The Back-Up Plan – 3,003 theatres
PREDICTION: $4.1 million

I think the title of this movie says it all. When couples go to the theatre to see Iron Man 2 and realize that it is sold out, what other choice do they have besides this and Date Night? I think The Back-Up Plan wins because it has been in theatres for less time and it is in a few more theatres. It has also been winning the daily Box Office throughout the week.

5) Date Night – 2,734 theatres
PREDICTION: $3.9 million

It’s between this one and The Back-Up Plan. See above description for reasoning.

6) Clash of the Titans – 2,157 theatres
PREDICTION: $3.4 million

This blockbuster has had its day. It has already made over $150 million and it won’t be getting much higher than that. Especially with Iron Man 2 in theatres this weekend, the Titans audience will not at this film.

7) Babies – 534 theatres
PREDICTION: $2.5 million

Babies is not going to break any records this weekend, but with its release coinciding with Mother’s Day it will definitely have big numbers. It has had a great marketing campaign that promotes it as the next March of the Penguins. With the total I’m predicting it will also have one of the highest per theatre averages ever for documentary. Can two different films break a record in one weekend? Probably not, but we shall see.

8) The Losers – 2,450 theatres
PREDICTION: $2.3 million

Hm…after all of the above predictions is there even audience left over for this film?

9) Furry Vengeance – 3,002 theatres
PREDICTION: $1.6 million

It’s one of the few films this weekend that is not losing screens to Iron Man 2 (technically it is gaining 5 screens), but that doesn’t change the fact that its a sinking ship going down fast. Brendan Fraser, what are you thinking?

10) Oceans – 1,232 theatres
PREDICTION: $1.2 million

It gains screens this weekend, but will lose some audience to the other limited release documentary Babies. It also will be competing for IMAX screens with Iron Man 2. Everything is competing with Iron Man 2, but really it’s not even a competition.

Those are my predictions for the weekend – care to share yours?

(For the record, I still think Eclipse will be the champion of the summer.)

[Source for Theatre Counts: Box Office Mojo]

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