BOX OFFICE: ‘Rio’ Flies, ‘Scream 4’ Dies

All of this weekend’s new releases limped into the Box Office with lower than expected grosses. The most successful performances actually came from two independent movies, Double Hour and Evil Bong 3D, earning $15,100 and $12,300 per screen respectively. Family friendly fare continues to be the most bankable performers at the Box Office. The Conspirator narrowly missed the top ten with an impressive opening weekend.

Box Office Actuals
April 15-17, 2011

1) Rio (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $39.23 million | PREDICTION: $44.1 million

The single-word family films continue to rule the Box Office for the third week in a row with Fox’s Rio taking the place of Universal’s Hop. Rio will likely stay on top for at least one more weekend until Fast Five comes out on the 29th.

2) Scream 4 (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $18.69 million | PREDICTION: $43.5 million

Originally I predicted a much closer race this weekend than we were given. This is the lowest opening of any Scream film leading some to speculate that this is actually the real end of the franchise, despite the fact that screenwriter Kevin Williamson has indicated interest in producing two more.

3) Hop (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $10.72 million | PREDICTION: $13.2 million

This film will likely hang on for one more decent weekend performance as Easter approaches, but after that it will drop off quickly. Along with the fact that Easter will be over, it will also be quickly faced with strong summer competition including Kung Fu Panda 2 and Hoodwinked 2: Hood vs. Evil.

4) Hanna (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $7.28 million | PREDICTION: $7.7 million

I knew that this film would hang on for a better performance than the film it premiered alongside, Arthur and Your Highness. It is playing in fewer theatres than both of those films, but has been outperforming them over the weekends and throughout the week.

5) Soul Surfer (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $7.27 million | PREDICTION: $6.3 million

I’m still completely ignorant about this movie. The one picture I saw of it made it look like a generic faux-inspirational surfer movie, which – the more I think about it – makes perfect sense why it is being so readily embraced by American audiences.

6) Arthur (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $6.76 million | PREDICTION: $6.6 million

A pretty big drop in its 2nd weekend puts Arthur behind Hanna and Soul Surfer. It is not very likely to stick around for more than three, maybe four weekends especially with upcoming comedy competition like Tyler Perry’s next film and Something Borrowed.

7) Insidious (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $6.74 million | PREDICTION: $5.5 million

This film premiered just behind Source Code, but has since beaten it almost every weekend. Overall Source Code has a higher cumulative gross than Insidious, but at this rate that won’t likely be the cast for another weekend.

8) Source Code (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $6.21 million | PREDICTION: $4.8 million

Both this film and its biggest competitor, Insidious, lost very little this weekend compared to the rest of the Box Office. It appears that reviews and word of mouth are in fact having an affect on the Box Office performance.

9) Your Highness (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $4.02 million | PREDICTION: $3.4 million

With a drop of 57% in its 2nd weekend, Your Highness is this week’s biggest loser. Despite its poor performance this weekend, it still managed to beat out my low prediction.

10) Limitless (Prediction: 10th)
ACTUAL: $3.66 million | PREDITION: $2.6 million

Despite switching Arthur and Soul Surfer and my massive overestimate on Scream 4, I actually did quite well with my predictions this week. Limitless prepares to exit the top ten after 5 impressive weeks and a cumulative gross of nearly $70 million.

[Source of Actuals: Box Office Mojo]

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