BOX OFFICE: ‘Rio’ Remains on Top

The cumulative Box Office total for the top twelve movies this weekend is up 6.1% over last weekend marking the second straight weekend with growth. That percentage will only increase as we head into our first week of Summer. Animated family films continue to rule the Box Office, proving the power of the family dollar.

Box Office Estimates
April 22-24, 2011

1) Rio (Prediction: 2nd)
ESTIMATE: $26.8 million | MY PREDICTION: $26.8 million

While I missed out on the place where Rio would finish, I somehow got the weekend gross dead-on. That number will probably change when actuals come in tomorrow afternoon, but for now I won’t restrain from bragging. The month of April has been entirely dominated by three-word titled animated family films. Both Hop and Rio will probably hang on for a little while as the early summer movies offer little for family audiences.

2) Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (Prediction: 1st)
ESTIMATE: $25.75 million | MY PREDICTION: $28.4 million

I’ve read several headlines that indicated Tyler Perry’s film “disappointed” in its opening weekend, but considering it destroyed every other film except the 3 screen release Incendies in per theatre average, there is no way this could be considered a disappointment. Tyler Perry is still a very bankable director and studios will likely continue to greenlight his projects for better or for worse.

3) Water for Elephants (Prediction: 3rd)
ESTIMATE: $17.5 million | MY PREDICTION: $18.9 million

I suspect that a large majority of this film’s audience consisted of fans of the best-selling novel with the same name. Audiences of die-hard fans tend to flock to the theatre on opening weekend and tither out quickly in the following weeks. This film will probably drop out of the top ten relatively quickly and I suspect it will be one of the biggest losers next week.

4) Hop (Prediction: 4th)
ESTIMATE: $12.46 million | MY PREDICTION: $11.1 million

This was the only film in the top ten to have week over week increase, which was likely due to the fact that it was Easter weekend. It also surpassed the $100 million mark domestically this weekend, becoming only the third film of 2011 to do so.

5) Scream 4 (Prediction: 6th)
ESTIMATE: $7.15 million | MY PREDICTION: $8.3 million

With a drop of 61.7% in its 2nd week, Scream 4 is this week’s biggest loser. It had the 2nd lowest per theatre average of any film in the top ten (just barely) and it looks like it will drop off the list without making $50 million domestically. This does not bode well for the possibility of a Scream 5 as screenwriter Kevin Williamson has indicated.

6) African Cats (Prediction: 5th)
ESTIMATE: $6.4 million | MY PREDICTION: $8.7 million

The inflated IMAX ticket prices could not help this movie get up to the amount I had predicted. It was not in that many theatres, so it did not do that well overall, but it still had a nice per theatre average. Hopefully Disneynature will continue their newly created tradition of releasing documentaries like this on Earth Day, despite this minor setback.

7) Soul Surfer (Prediction: 7th)
ESTIMATE: $5.6 million | MY PREDICTION: $5.6 million

Whenever I get one perfectly correct, I like to pretend that I knew it all along. Let’s see if I still do as well when the actuals come in.

8) Insidious (Prediction: 8th)
ESTIMATE: $5.38 million | MY PREDICTION: $4.9 million

This film has now earned over $44 million on a budget of $1.5 million. Do you think there is going to be an Insidious 2?

9) Hanna (Prediction: 9th)
ESTIMATE: $5.28 million | MY PREDICTION: $4.6 million

This film and Arthur had the biggest drops this weekend as each film fell 5 places. But that wasn’t before Hanna managed to pull in enough to cover its $30 million budget.

10) Source Code (Prediction: 10th)
ESTIMATE: $5.06 million | MY PREDICTION: $3.1 million

It won’t be in the top ten again next weekend, but it should earn a cumulative gross of over $50 million when all is said and done. Not too bad for a director who is very little known in the mainstream.

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