BOX OFFICE: ‘Shrek’ Beats the Newbies

Families escaped the heat this weekend by heading in to an air conditioned movie theatre and seeing the fourth Shrek movie. The animated 3-D film beat out all of the newcomers this weekend to top the Box Office for the second week in a row. Overall, the Box Office totals were pretty low for Memorial Day weekend, but that is simply because there is literally nothing good in wide release right now.

Box Office Estimates
May 28-31, 2010

1) Shrek Forever After (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $43.4 million | PREDICTION: $29.9 million

I seemed to have forgotten that for a film like Shrek, quality doesn’t matter too much. Children and families will see it multiple times regardless of how well it plays. Memorial Day weekend is a time to spend with the family and this was the family’s choice.

2) Sex and the City 2 (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $31.1 million | PREDICTION: $81.1 million

I was very glad to see that I overestimated on this one. The film opened with an impressive $13 million dollar Thursday night including midnight showings, but it then dropped dramatically for the rest of the weekend. I’m glad that the message of over-consumption that is propagated in the film wasn’t reflected with people’s purchases of movie tickets.

3) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $30.1 million | PREDICTION: $42.6 million

I’m really tired of over-predicting the Box Office. On one hand I’m glad that people aren’t spending their hard earned money on the crap that Hollywood is producing this summer. On the other hand, I’m sick of being wrong. Prince of Persia follows the trend of every video game movie before it by sucking in its first weekend.

4) Iron Man 2 (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $16.3 million | PREDICTION: $14.1 million

Iron Man 2 became closer to becoming the first summer movie to pass $300 million. It didn’t quite do it, but it ended up at $274 million. Expect it to bring in around another $10 million next weekend.

5) Robin Hood (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $10.3 million | PREDICTION: $8.9 million

I’m glad to see that Robin Hood is hanging on to the top five in its 3rd weekend. It’s still not looking strong at its prospects of passing $100 million, but it managed to beat out many far inferior movies this weekend.

6) Letters to Juliet (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $5.9 million | PREDICTION: $4.6 million

This was kind of a no-brainer, although I’m surprised that it did better than my prediction while so many other films this weekend did not. It will probably hang on to the top 10 for two more weekends.

7) Just Wright (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $2.2 million | PREDICTION: $1.9 million


8) Date Night (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $1.8 million | PREDICTION: $1.4 million

Even with a significant theatre count decline, it still managed to make the top ten in its eighth week of release. It is the second oldest film on the list.

9) MacGruber (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $1.6 million | PREDICTION: $2.9 million

Come on, MacGruber, you’re embarrassing yourself! A $610 per theatre average!? Not even surpassing $10 million in your second week? This is getting ridiculous.

10) How to Train Your Dragon (Prediction: N/A)
ACTUAL: $1.1 million | PREDICTION: N/A

Apparently all of the families that came out didn’t decide on Shrek. A good number of them chose to see the best reviewed film of the year, which kept it in the top ten for one more week.

TOTAL: 3 out of 10 correct

Next weekend look for Get Him to the Greek and Marmaduke to compete with Shrek Forever After, with Shrek likely beating them out and hanging on for a third week on top.

[Source for Estimates: Box Office Mojo]

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