Once again I have proven far too optimistic in my weekend Box Office predictions. The Social Network had a wonderfully successful weekend, but it was not the Box Office smash that I had predicted and hoped it would be. However, it has a lot more to celebrate than this weekend’s other new releases which failed to attract the interest of movie goers and are among many of this fall’s Box Office casualties. In limited release the documentary Freakonomics also performed poorly this weekend with one of the lowest per theatre averages of any new releases.
Box Office Estimates
October 1-3, 2010
1) The Social Network (Prediction: 1st)
ESTIMATE: $23 million | PREDICTION: $37.4 million
The general interest for this film was reportedly very high, but it has proven to be the type of movie that audiences are willing to wait a few weekends before seeing. To be considered a significant Oscar contender it’s going to need a steady decrease in the coming weekends. If it falls out of the top ten too quickly, it may get forgotten when the Oscar ballots get sent out.
2) Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole (Prediction: 5th)
ESTIMATE: $10.855 million | PREDICTION: $9.9 million
The films that finished 2nd through 4th this weekend were so close in estimated total that they could easily be swapped when the actuals come out. However, I did not have this movie even in the top five. It’s one of the only family movies that is in wide release, which gave audiences an alternative to the mainstream adult-centered films.
3) Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Prediction: 2nd)
ESTIMATE: $10.1 million | PREDICTION: $11.1 million
A 46% drop off in earnings makes the Wall Street sequel the biggest loser of this weekend’s top ten films. It did not beat The Town in per theatre average, but because it still dominates in terms of theatre count, it managed to pull ahead.
4) The Town (Prediction: 3rd)
ESTIMATE: $10 million | PREDICTION: $10.6 million
I may have gotten the order wrong for a lot of the films, but at least my total wasn’t nearly as off as it was for The Social Network. The Town is not in many theatres, but it is very popular with audiences so as long as it doesn’t drastically reduce its release, it should remain in the top five for one or two more weekends.
5) Easy A (Prediction: 6th)
ESTIMATE: $7 million | PREDICTION: $4.9 million
The estimated budget for this film was a meager $8 million and it has now grossed over $40 million. It’s not the sequel type of film, but definitely expect more leading performances from Emma Stone.
6) You Again (Prediction: 8th)
ESTIMATE: $5.552 million | PREDICTION: $3.5 million
It’s disappointing to me that a film of this quality in its 2nd weekend is able to do better than Let Me In in its first weekend. I’m expecting a quicker drop than 34% next weekend when it will lose more screens.
7) Case 39 (Prediction: 7th)
ESTIMATE: $5.35 million | PREDICTION: $4.1 million
The rule of thumb that movie studios have always depended on is that horror movies are guaranteed to do well during the month of October. This weekend seems to prove that rule incorrect as both new horror releases were considerable bombs.
8) Let Me In (Prediction: 4th)
ESTIMATE: $5.3 million | PREDICTION: $9.9 million
I like to think that audiences took my advice this weekend and stayed home to watch the original Swedish film instead of going out to see this movie, but I don’t want to give myself an inflated sense of self-importance. Don’t expect this movie to hang around the Box Office top ten for another weekend or stick around at the end of the year for any Awards consideration.
9) Devil (Prediction: 9th)
ESTIMATE: $3.672 million | PREDICTION: $3.3 million
Looking at movies 7-9 at the Box Office provides some answers about why certain films failed – perhaps the same films were drawing from a very limited audience of horror fans. However, the fact that Devil in its third week was even close to Let Me In or Case 39 does not say much about the American moviegoer.
10) Alpha and Omega (Prediction: N/A)
ESTIMATE: $3 million | PREDICTION: N/A
Children don’t read reviews so the fact that this movie was widely panned won’t stop little Billy from wanting to go and see all the doggies on screen.