BOX OFFICE: ‘Super 8’ Wins and 2011 Has New King

Limited release films held on for a decent weekend as Midnight in Paris stays in the top ten and The Tree of Life just narrowly misses, landing at number 11. However, the big story is that Fast Five is now the third highest grossing film of 2011 as it was passed this weekend by The Hangover: Part II and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. Will these two be the hits of the summer or are they soon to be beaten?

Box Office Estimates
June 10-12, 2011

1) Super 8 (Opening)
ESTIMATE: $37 million

The question surrounding this film is whether or not it will have legs to carry it to being one of the biggest Box Office successes of the year. Even though the reviews are not flat-out raves, I believe that this film will have better legs than franchise films like X-Men: First Class or Pirates of the Caribbean. This is the perfect drive-in movie and should merit many re-watches.

2) X-Men: First Class (2nd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $25 million

With a 54.6% drop X-Men: First Class is this weekend’s biggest loser. I suspect this movie is going to drop very quickly as The Green Lantern is set to steal its audience next weekend.

3) The Hangover: Part II (3rd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $18.5 million

Thanks to this weekend’s numbers, The Hangover: Part II is now the highest grossing film of 2011. It looks like it will stay in front of Pirates of the Caribbean and may pose a threat to some of the blockbusters that are yet to come. However, it has been dropping quickly and should continue to do so.

4) Kung Fu Panda 2 (3rd Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $16.64 million

I predicted a few weeks ago that it wouldn’t be long before Kung Fu Panda 2 surpassed The Hangover: Part II in weekend gross (not cumulative gross). It is looking like that will probably happen by next week.

5) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (4th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $10.85 million

This has become the second-highest grossing film of the year thanks to this weekend’s push and it is already the highest grossing worldwide film of 2011. It should be able to re-coup is $250 million budget in domestic receipts alone, which likely indicates that we haven’t seen the last of Jack Sparrow.

6) Bridesmaids (5th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $10.15 million

There are two films that I’m really rooting for to succeed at the Box Office and this is one of them. Once again it barely dipped in its weekend total and had a higher per theatre average than Pirates. If you haven’t ventured to the theatre to see this yet, please do it.

7) Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer (Opening)
ESTIMATE: $6.27 million

This low-budget family movie wasn’t expecting huge returns and is definitely the type of movie that earns most of its money on DVD and Blu-Ray sales. It should earn back its $20 million budget rather easily.

8) Midnight in Paris (4th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $6.15 million

In its 4th weekend this great Woody Allen film finally gets an expanded release for mainstream audiences. It has already earned $14 million in cumulative gross and is on pace to become one of his highest grossers ever. It would be worthy of such a distinction.

9) Thor (6th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $2.37 million

Thor has enjoyed a nice run this summer and has settled down as the fourth highest grossing film of the year. It will probably fall out of the top ten next weekend, but it might stay in the top ten when summer is all said and done.

10) Fast Five (7th Weekend)
ESTIMATE: $1.71 million

After seven strong weekends Fast Five is likely to fall out of the top ten next weekend. I have a feeling we haven’t seen the last of this franchise.

Next week look for The Green Lantern to take over the top spot in a fight against Mr. Popper’s Penguins. Studio estimates are courtesy of Box Office Mojo.

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