True Grit is the champion of the first full weekend of 2011, finally moving to number one in its 3rd weekend in release. The typically slow month of January new releases allows for the high profile word of mouth films from last year to rule the Box Office and that seems to be just what is happening.
Box Office Estimates
January 7-9, 2011
1) True Grit (3,124 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $15 million
The film has already become the highest grossing Coen brothers movie of all-time and in a week it will be the second highest grossing Western of all-time, behind Dancing With Wolves. Many have speculated that this last-minute Box Office surge will make it a competitor to win Best Picture over The Social Network. Nomination ballots are due this week, so True Grit will be on a lot of members’ minds when they are casting ballots. However, the film is not likely to stay on the top of the Box Office for too much longer and it will likely not be the main topic of discussion after nominations are announced.
2) Little Fockers (3,675 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $13.78 million
Little Fockers had a budget of over $100 million and True Grit had a budget of $38 million and the latter is likely to have earned slightly more when all is said and done. Take a note, Hollywood.
3) Season of the Witch (2,816 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $10.73 million
With a 4% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, nobody who pays attention to movies could have expected this film to be at all decent. However, there is always the non-movie loving contingent of people who may see one or two TV trailers and know the movie features Nicolas Cage and that is enough reason to head out to the cinema. The Box Office could also be explained by people who take pleasure in watching downright awful movies.
4) Tron Legacy (3,103 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $9.8 million
With a 47.7% drop from last weekend, Tron Legacy is the biggest loser at this weekend’s Box Office. It has already raked in close to $150 million and it destined for an almost certain sequel considering that Disney is already planning Tron-themed rides and attractions at their amusement parks.
5) Black Swan (1,584 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $8.35 million
All of the potential Best Picture nominees that are still in theatres have been holding the most steady at the weekend Box Office, which makes me believe that the average person does in fact pay attention to precursor awards. Out of all the films in the top ten this weekend, Black Swan actually had the smallest decline dropping only 6% from last weekend. It may continue to creep its way up the top ten as more Awards are announced including this weekend’s Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards.
6) Country Strong (1,424 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $7.3 million
This film actually had one of the highest per theatre averages of the top ten films (just behind The King’s Speech), but because of its lower number of theatres. The film was produced on a rather low budget, so this opening is not a disappointment.
7) The Fighter (2,528 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $7 million
This Best Picture contender has lost a lot of momentum this week as Black Swan passes it up and will end up grossing higher in its theatrical run. It has still had a good enough Box Office run to be considered a success.
8) The King’s Speech (758 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $6.81 million
This film had the highest per theatre average of any film in the top ten this weekend and continues to do impressive business in its limited release. There were reports on Twitter of it selling out theatres around the country and when I saw it two weeks ago on a Thursday night, the cinema was completely packed. I expect it to continue to do very well with the big televised precursors that are going to be on this weekend.
9) Yogi Bear (3,288 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $6.81 million
Hey Boo Boo, look’s like we ah made enough money to earn back our budget. Can ah we say sequel?
10) Tangled (2,383 theatres)
ESTIMATE: $5.2 million
With an impressive 7 weeks in the top ten, Tangled holds on for another decent weekend. It’s cumulative gross is over $175 million and it can join the list for one of the top grossing films of 2011.
[Source for Estimates: Box Office Mojo]