The second largest opening weekend of the summer now belongs to Toy Story 3. The animated film crushed the competition as the official start of summer takes place tomorrow. The other premieres of the weekend and the films entering their second and third weekends had mostly lackluster performances. Did Toy Story 3 re-awaken the summer Box Office?
Box Office Estimates
June 18-20, 2010
1) Toy Story 3 (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $109 million | PREDICTION: $126.6 million
There was beautiful weather in most parts of the country this weekend, which may have kept people out and about rather than inside of a movie theatre. Regardless, $109 million gives Toy Story 3 the second highest weekend opening of all-time for an animated movie behind Shrek the Third. Toy Story 3 has the added advantage of being a phenomenally good movie, which will keep it strong for several weekends at the Box Office. I wouldn’t be surprised if this movie pulls a How to Train Your Dragon and pops back up to number one after a few weekends in the top 5.
2) The Karate Kid (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $29 million | PREDICTION: $26.1 million
The Karate Kid held up quite well against Buzz and Woody in its second weekend despite a drop of nearly 50%. It’s cumulative total is very close to that of Toy Story 3‘s and it will likely hang on for another strong weekend or two. Families have been spoiled at this summer’s Box Office.
3) The A-Team (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $13.8 million | PREDICTION: $11.5 million
I saw this movie over the weekend and it was actually not terrible. It delivers pretty much what you expect from a remake of a mediocre ’80s television show. This is the perfect movie for the drive-in and it has proven to be the number one choice for many teens and adults.
4) Get Him to the Greek (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $6.2 million | PREDICTION: $6.4 million
As I expected, although foolishly did not predict, this movie has managed to hang on to the top five for another weekend. It’s not a bad movie, especially compared to the rest of this summer’s fare and R-rated comedies have the type of audiences that hang on and wait for several weekends before heading out to the theatre.
5) Shrek Forever After (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $5.5 million | PREDICTION: $7.7 million
Toy Story 3 affected Shrek Forever After‘s take pretty significantly and it will likely continue to do so as positive word of mouth gets out. The movie got the largest decline this weekend going from #3 to #5 and decreasing 65% from last weekend. Don’t expect it to hang on to the top 5 in any future weekends.
6) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $5.3 million | PREDICTION: $3.8 million
Somehow this movie managed to decline only 19% in its 4th weekend, which was the smallest decline of the weekend’s top ten. That was done while getting a 17% theatrical count decline, which basically means the movie earned about the same amount of money per screen as it did last weekend. It’s pretty impressive when a movie does that in its 4th weekend.
7) Killers (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $5.1 million | PREDICTION: $4.4 million
I predicted Toy Story 3 to absolutely destroy the competition at the Box Office this weekend and I’m somewhat impressed that so many other films earned more than $5 million. I imagine Killers will fall off the wagon fast as soon as Knight and Day gets released next weekend because they are practically the same movie.
8) Jonah Hex (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $5.1 million | PREDICTION: $9.7 million
The fact that the movie was absolutely terrible must have gotten out as the film absolutely bombed in its premiere weekend. Social networking crushed Bruno last summer and I believe it has done the same for Jonah Hex this weekend. Don’t expect it to be in the top 10 for a second weekend in a row. It’s MacGruber all over again.
9) Iron Man 2 (Prediction: N/A)
ACTUAL: $2.7 million | PREDICTION: N/A
I thought that Iron Man 2 had enjoyed its last weekend in the top ten, but it managed to not move at all between this weekend and last. It’s possible that this summer’s two biggest hits managed to make the top 10 for the same weekend.
10) Marmaduke (Prediction: 10th)
ACTUAL: $2.65 million | PREDICTION: $3.3 million
Marmaduke prevented Sex and the City 2 from making the top ten, although the estimates are so close that things may shift around once the actuals come in.
TOTAL: 6 correct out of 10.
[Source for Estimates: Box Office Mojo]