X-Men: First Class narrowly beat the opening Box Office of the original film to become the fourth highest opener in the five film franchise. The Hangover and Kung Fu Panda sequels both had pretty significant drops this week and Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life, and Beginners all had huge per theatre averages. The Summer Box Office winners and losers are starting to establish themselves and summer is still just getting kicked off.
Box Office Predictions
June 3-5, 2011
1) X-Men: First Class (Prediction: 1st)
ESTIMATE: $56 million | MY PREDICTION: $69.9 million
When I made my prediction I mentioned that this may in fact be one of the highest grossing movies of the summer. I now think I may have been right to keep it out of my summer top ten. I suspect it is going to drop pretty quickly in the next two weeks as it goes up against Super 8 and The Green Lantern.
2) The Hangover: Part II (Prediction: 2nd)
ESTIMATE: $32.45 million | MY PREDICTION: $35.8 million
With a drop of 62.2% in its second weekend The Hangover: Part II is this weekend’s biggest loser (thankfully). My prediction remains that before The Hangover and Bridesmaids fall out of the Box Office top ten, they will have swapped places.
3) Kung Fu Panda 2 (Prediction: 3rd)
ESTIMATE: $24.3 million | MY PREDICTION: $29.1 million
Once again I overestimated on my predictions. There are a few weeks until Cars 2 comes out meaning that this film should bring in the family audiences, keeping it high for a little while.
4) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Prediction: 4th)
ESTIMATE: $18.01 million | MY PREDICTION: $18.6 million
With this weekend’s gross Pirates stays strong as the second highest grossing film of 2011. It will probably be passed by The Hangover next weekend, but Pirates still wins with the overseas crowd.
5) Bridesmaids (Prediction: 5th)
ESTIMATE: $12.13 million | MY PREDICTION: $13.9 million
This film has faced some very steep competition, but it still manages to have pretty low declines week after week. It surpassed the $100 million mark and continues to have decent per theatre averages. It probably won’t stay in the top 5 for another week, but should be in the top ten for a while yet.
6) Thor (Prediction: 6th)
ESTIMATE: $4.2 million | MY PREDICTION: $4.2 million
The highest grossing superhero movie of the year will not have that title stolen away by X-Men: First Class. There are still a few films that have the opportunity to surpass Thor, but it will likely end the summer in the top ten.
7) Fast Five (Prediction: 7th)
ESTIMATE: $3.22 million | MY PREDICTION: $3.0 million
The number one highest grossing movie of 2011 surpassed the $200 million mark this weekend. I anticipate it will only hold this title until Harry Potter and Transformers come out, but it has definitely set a high precedent for the franchise.
8) Midnight in Paris (Prediction: 8th)
ESTIMATE: $2.92 million | MY PREDICTION: $2.8 million
With another small theatre increase, Midnight in Paris continues to tiptoe its way to $10 million thanks to huge per theatre averages. When it expands to more than 200 theatres it could actually move up even higher.
9) Jumping the Broom (Prediction: 10th)
ESTIMATE: $0.87 million | MY PREDICTION: $0.8 million
Originally I had predicted Terence Malick’s The Tree of Life to fill this spot, but that film finished in 13th in only 20 theatres. Instead this rom-com held steady and managed to stay in the top ten for a fifth week.
10) Something Borrowed (Prediction: N/A)
ESTIMATE: $0.84 million | MY PREDICTION: N/A
It came in with Jumping the Broom and wants to ensure that it goes out with it. How cute.
[Source for Estimates: Box Office Mojo]