Day 9 closed at the 2013 Cannes Film Festival, and whilst things are certainly settling down, we’ve still got a handful of exciting titles still to witness. Roman Polanski’s Venus in Fur, James Gray’s The Immigrant and Jim Jarmusch’s Only Lovers Left Alive will be the last to leave an impression on critics and the jury. Already, though, we have enough to look at to make some serious judgments on what the decisions of Steven Spielberg’s jury might be.
Soderbergh is one of two (or rather three) directors vying for their second Palme d’Or, having secured his first over two decades ago for his directorial debut, Sex, Lies, and Videotape. His Liberace biopic has a lot going for it, between an overwhelmingly positive response and the added enthusiasm over it being his so-called last film before retirement. That said, it also has the disadvantage of having its U.S. television premiere on Sunday, even if it is releasing in theaters overseas. Hopefully the Cannes jury will know the difference.
Palme d’Or Probability: 8.5/10
It only just hit the festival, but
boy girl, has it made a huge impression in that short time! The films that win the Palme d’Or, often regardless of jury members, are often ones that penetrate deep emotional crevices. From Amour to Elephant to Dancer in the Dark, it’s often the tears that work better than the smiles, and the twitter response to the film has been so extreme. It definitely sounds like the kind of film Lynne Ramsay would go for! With luck, so will the rest of the jury.
Palme d’Or Probability: 9.6/10
When the vague-but-beautiful trailer for Paolo Sorrentino’s latest landed over a month ago, its visual aesthetic was the most appealing thing about it. The film that aesthetic is built around has also been received pretty well, though I worry the response isn’t as ecstatic as it should be. Sorrentino’s work has a habit of dividing viewers, and while many have said The Great Beauty is very amusing, that may not play universally with the jury. Still a strong possibility.
Palme d’Or Probability: 8.2/10
As said in the review round-up, this was one that had a strong chance at impressing the Spielberg led jury, the story of a one-legged dancer forced to traffic petrol in Chad sounding so powerful on paper. However, the reaction simply hasn’t been ecstatic enough to bolster the film as a Palme powerhouse. Word surrounding the film is positive, which could give it some life as a Foreign Language Film Oscar candidate, but the big Cannes prize just doesn’t feel like it’s in the cards for Haroun this year.
Palme d’Or Probability: 7.9/10
The last time the Coen brothers came to Cannes their film lost, only for No Country for Old Men to go on to Oscar fame. The Palme is rarely a sign of American Academy appeal, and I feel as though this film will do better in the year-end awards fray than on the Croisette. That said, it has possibly the most unanimously positive response of the festival, with few having anything truly negative to say about. Amour was in that same spot last year, and it had its day with both the Palme and the Oscars. Inside Llewyn Davis could manage a similar feat and give the Coens their second Palme, having won their first for Barton Fink.
Palme d’Or Probability: 9.3/10
Something tells me I should be hinging my bets on this film a lot more than I am. Perhaps it’s because it’s the consensus sweet movie, with Kore-eda continuing his study of children’s relationships to their families. That instantly makes it very appealing as a crowdpleaser, which many expect Spielberg to choose. It’s very tempting to go along with it, but there is a jury process to this thing, and it usually irons out films of much deeper emotional beats than this has been playing. Still, remember that The Kid with a Bike won the Grand Prix in its year. I suspect a similar runner-up outcome for this.
Palme d’Or Probability: 9.2/10
I’ve already touched on the fact that I don’t think Payne’s American sensibilities play well to the foreign crowd, though there’s certainly some artistic appeal in his road movie. Black and white is a very distinctive style that’s been making a comeback recently, but I don’t know that it resonates as significantly as The Artist or (outside Cannes) Frances Ha. So close to the end, a film really needs to sweep viewers off their feet to have a chance at awards and this just hasn’t done that. Like Inside Llewyn Davis, though, Oscar nods very surely await.
Palme d’Or Probability: 7.7/10
The biggest thing that Asghar Farhadi may have going against him is that he won the top prize at the major film festival that his last film, A Separation, opened at. It would probably be some sort of record broken for him to the Palme d’Or for the film he made directly after his Golden Bear winner, but even at a different festival, is it too soon to award Farhadi another major prize. The jury may not think so, as they could very well see it as a deeply affecting movie worthy of the award on its own merit. Forget the director’s recent awards fame. Award it to the film that struck deepest. It’s certainly a close race for that Palme d’Or, and this is a very likely possibility.
Palme d’Or Probability: 9.4/10
There are your (or rather my) odds on eight films that stand a significant enough chance at scratching the Palme d’Or, but if you want specific predictions, I’ve got you covered for all the competition awards below.
Palme d’Or: Blue is the Warmest Color
Grand Prix: Like Father, Like Son
Prix de la mise en scene (Best Director): Steven Soderbergh, Behind the Candelabra
Prix d’interprétation masculine (Best Actor): Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Prix d’interprétation feminine (Best Actress): Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Prix du scenario (Best Screenplay): Hirokazu Kore-eda, Like Father, Like Son
Prix du Jury (Jury Prize): The Past