Alex Carlson
Check out the 2011 Best Picture Predictions!
With last month’s Cannes Film Festival we received our first glimpse of 2011 Oscar possibilities. Traditionally one or two films from Cannes go on to become Best Picture contenders and several of the foreign festival entries compete for the Best Foreign Film Oscar. Many would say that “Oscar season” does not actually kick off until the Toronto Film Festival in September, but throughout the year predictions are made and risks are taken. I actually think that the first batch of predictions are actually the most enjoyable because there is no context to the Awards season and the predictions are based purely on instinct.
In 2010, we saw a different Academy than the one we had grown to know so well. After 2009′s record low Oscar telecast featuring obscure films that few had seen and fewer had loved, the Academy went a completely different direction in 2010 – they went commercial. Increasing the Best Picture nominees to ten allowed for Box Office hits such as The Blind Side, Up, and District 9 to score nominations when in other years they likely would not. The results have caused many to speculate that the Academy is getting younger, hipper, and more open to genres like science fiction and comedy.
There will be plenty of opportunity for the Academy to show off their new found hipness in 2011. The 2010 cinematic year offers a variety of high profile projects from novice and veteran filmmakers alike. Some major stars and filmmakers may get their first chance at Oscar nominations this year and some new faces might be made into stars. The exciting thing about 10 Best Picture nominees is that absolutely nothing is certain. Chances are several of the films that will end up on the end of the year top ten are not even among the 30 films that appear on my initial list.
My no guts, no glory pick for the early frontrunner is Anton Corbijn’s The American. It has been proven that older and younger Academy members alike are infatuated with George Clooney and last year’s nominees indicate that the they are open to nominating a thriller as long as it has a deep political or social message. The American seems to fit that bill nicely.
Ed Harris and Colin Farrell in 'The Way Back'
Closely competing with The American are four films of vastly different genres: Miral, Hereafter, Somewhere, and True Grit. The Weinstein Company’s latest pick-up of Julian Schnabel’s Miral indicates that the Oscar campaigning masters have found their horse for this year’s race. The film seems to have the right kind of dramatic and social context that the Academy loves. Clint Eastwood’s Hereafter is a film that sounds too Oscar-baity to be true – an ensemble film directed by Eastwood, produced by Steven Spielberg, written by Peter Morgan with Matt Damon as one of the leads. Sofia Coppola’s Somewhere could be this year’s big standout comedy and has positioned itself with a release date that will allow for a great awards campaign. The Coen Brothers’ True Grit remake has the best male cast of the year and despite the Oscars’ current transition phase, it’s still heavily male dominated.
Only two films on the list are currently in theatrical release Derek Cianfrance’s Winter’s Bone and Dreamworks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon. I predict that Winter’s Bone will follow a similar path as last year’s The Hurt Locker with a quiet summer release going on to make a huge dent in the Awards season. I also predict that How to Train Your Dragon might be this year’s Up, in terms of its Oscar capabilities. However, Pixar is never to be underestimated as Toy Story 3 is poised to open this weekend with excellent word of mouth. Who says there can only be one animated film nominated for Best Picture?
The complete Best Picture predictions page is complete with trailers, release dates, and website links for every movie that has them available. Check it out and let me know your predictions in the comments!
Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 9:43 am
Okay, let me just help you out with this, because this needs to be straightened out right now. How to Train Your Dragon is not this year’s Up. Think of how good Dragon was, then think of how good Up was. It’s not even a contest. The only Pixar films Dragon meets up to in quality are Cars and A Bugs Life. Suffice it to say, Toy Story 3 won’t be a huge change. It will still be more awesome than most films this summer. If people really get to far with this Dragon Oscar hype I might puke. I like the film more than any other dreamworks film, but to say it’s Pixar worthy is just a huge punch in the balls.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 10:22 am
Haha, I wasn’t comparing the films in terms of quality, but rather in terms of awards probability. ‘How to Train Your Dragon’ is more than likely going to sweep the animated awards this year and if the quality of films released in 2010 does not improve, it will be a strong Best Picture contender.
Also realize that both films scored 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. So no matter what YOU thought of the film, critics obvious liked it.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Duncan is absolutley right. Look at the average rating on rottentomatoes. Up is at 8.6 and Dragon is at 7.9, which roughly translates to 3/4 versus 3.5/4. Thats a solid difference. While critics thought that Dragon was a fun excursion in 3-d and vastly exceded expectations, Up was art. The academy is in a stage where they are picking artsy films, even if bigger ones get nominated. Toy Story 3 is the only animated film that has a shot at oscar glory, and that is only a maybe.
But more importantly, don’t you think Inception has a better shot, I see that as a guarantee.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Davin, nothing is a guarantee.
I’m seeing ‘Toy Story 3′ tonight, so until I’m convinced otherwise, I’m sticking to my guns.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 2:14 pm
“Hereafter” does sound to good to be true, I predict that it will follow the same path last year’s “Invictus” had and only manage one major award.
Where’s the mention of “Inception” and T”he Kids Are All Right”? Or Javier Bardem ?
And this is just me, but I think that “How To Train Your Dragon” is by far the year’s best movie, that being said I’m sure that I’ll change my mind as soon as I see “Toy Story 3″ this weekend. Enjoy the movie Alex!
Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 2:39 pm
I’ll mention ‘Inception’ and the other movies on the list in due time. I didn’t have time to write about all 30 movies on the list. Check out the full list for my brief Pro’s and Con’s on each:
http://www.filmmisery.com/oscars/2010/picture.php
Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 7:55 pm
Allow me to join the chorus of voices saying that “How to Train Your Dragon” has zero chance at being nominated.
“Inception” has a way better chance, particularly since Nolan is due.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010 at 9:49 am
Although I haven’t seen it and have to wait until DECEMBER, I think “True Grit” is in the running. It’s the Coen brothers and it’s Jeff Bridges. I’m sorry, but you can’t go wrong with that combo. You just can’t!
Am I the only one who thinks the trailer for “The American” looks a lot like a cologne commercial?
Wednesday, June 16, 2010 at 5:31 pm
I think Toy Story 3 has a chance. The other two are wonderful classics, and if there were ten nominees in the years they were released, they probably would have gooten nominated. How to Train You Dragon probably does not have a chance. Inception will probably make it. I hope Shutter Island hets some recignition. It may not get a BP nomination, but maybe some in the technical categories. Hopefully, possibly some acting?
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 1:25 am
Get Low is my dark horse candidate for Best Picture. Original story + 3 American Icons (Duvall, Murray, Spacek) + crowd pleaser.
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 2:00 am
Good article. I love coming to this site for the Oscar predictions.
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 11:20 am
pixar will be the death of film
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 11:36 am
I’ll run through all 30 films on that list.
The American: Nope. Too actiony.
Miral: A minor contender.
Hereafter: See Blind Side/Invictus controversy.
Somewhere: Very likely.
True Grit: Serious Man barely made it…
Winter’s Bone: It’s too early a release…but it’s supposedly great.
Tree of Life: When is the damn movie coming out? And if New World couldn’t get a nom…
How To Train Your Dragon: Not in a million years.
The Way Back: I’m iffy on this one.
Fair Game: Hm. Maybe.
Jack Goes Boating: No.
Inception: Nolan’s due + Dark Knight snub + Academy respected actors + those trailers = HELL YES
Secretariat: Why is everyone predicting this film? NO.
London Blvd: I’ve barely heard about this film…eh.
Blue Valentine: This would make a nice nominee.
Social Network: VERY unlikely.
Kids Are All Right: Oh, this is a big contender. Trust me.
Toy Story 3: If any animated film gets nominated, this is it.
Rabbit Hole: Possible.
Love and Other Drugs: Depends on how many members use Viagra.
King’s Speech: Costume dramas haven’t won in a while, but I don’t think this is it.
Biutiful: They love Inarritu! This is a likely one.
Black Swan: They respect his skill with actors, but he needs a Best Picture nomination already. He’s 4 for 4.
Adjustment Bureau: A maybe.
The Fighter: Likely.
Never Let Me Go: Have you seen that trailer? It’s in.
127 Hours: No…just no.
You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger: I predict this will be lower than Vicky Christina Barcelona and Bullets over Broadway, but higher than Mighty Aphrodite on the Allen scale-meaning, maybe.
Another Year: Possible.
The Town: Doubtful.
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 11:40 am
You say everything with such assertion, Andrew. You forget that at this point in the year, nobody knows anything.
Also, ‘Mighty Aphrodite’ was wonderful.
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Alex Carlson-This is (almost) all guesswork, based solely on plot, trailer, Academy cred, and other stuff.
As for “assertion”…well, you said it yourself, nothing’s certain. But we can guess, and if I gave predictions based solely on odds at this point of getting in, you would see a shitload of “This film might have a shot at getting in.” EVERY godamn film has a shot at getting in. So, I go ahead and say yay or nay based on the above criteria.
And I liked Mighty Aphrodite a lot-where’d you get THAT from? It’s not as good as the other two Allen films I cited, but I like it a lot, particularly Sorvino’s performance. I said You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger would probably be in between those films, based on Cannes reviews.
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 5:11 pm
I see, I thought you were saying that ‘Mighty Aphrodite’ represented bad Woody Allen. I’d put it in one of my top five favorite films of his.
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 9:26 pm
True. They liked the film. But, how much did they like it. Take a closer look at the average rating than the percent of good reviews. You’ll see that Pixar still has quite the lead on How to Train Your Dragon. And if you look at the current average rating of Toy Story 3 it’s still doing better than Dragon.
Saturday, June 19, 2010 at 5:31 am
Best Picture: INCEPTION.
Best Director: Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”).
Best Actor: Leonardo di Caprio (“Inception” or “Shutter Island”).
Best Actress: Naomi Watts (“Fair Game”).
Best Supporting Actor: Vincent Cassel (“The Black Swan”).
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (“The Fighter”).
Saturday, June 19, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Viggo, are those who you think will win? If so,
Best Picture: Toy Story 3
Director: Inception
Actress: Mulligan (Never Let Me Go, The Academy owes her one after last year)
Actor: ?, Although Dicaprio will probably get more recognition for Inception than Shutter Island, I think this could be between Javier Bardem and Ryan Gosling.
Saturday, June 19, 2010 at 7:06 pm
I think The Way Back has a strong chance. Peter Weir is long overdue for an oscar.
Friday, June 25, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Best Picture
Another Year
Blue Valentine
Get Low
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The Kings Speech
The Tree Of Life
True Grit
The Way Back
Winter’s Bone
Best Director
Another Year (Mike Leigh)
Blue Valentine (Derek Cianfrance)
The Kings Speech (Tom Hooper)
True Grit (Ethan & Joel Coen)
The Way Back (Peter Weir)
Best Actor
Another Year (Jim Broadbent)
Blue Valentine (Ryan Gosling)
Get Low (Robert Duvall)
The Kings Speech (Collin Firth)
True Grit (Jeff Bridges)
Best Actress
Another Year (Lesley Manville)
Blue Valentine (Michelle Williams)
The Conspirator (Robin Wright)
The Kids Are Alright (Annette Bening)
Winter’s Bone (Jennifer Lawrence)
Best Supporting Actor
The Fighter (Christian Bale)
Get Low (Bill Murray)
The Kids Are Alright (Mark Ruffalo)
The Kings Speech (Geoffrey Rush)
The Way Back (Ed Harris)
Best Supporting Actress
Hereafter (Bryce Dallas Howard)
Never Let Me Go (Keira Knightley)
Somewhere (Elle Fanning)
The Tree Of Life (Jessica Chastain)
Winter’s Bone (Dale Dickey)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Never Let Me Go (Alex Garland)
Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt)
True Grit (Ethan & Joel Coen)
The Way Back (Peter Weir)
Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Daniel Woodrell)
Best Original Screenplay
Another Year (Mike Leigh)
Blue Valentine (Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne)
Get Low (Chris Provenzano, C. Gaby Mitchell, Scott Seeke)
The Kids Are All Right (Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko)
The King’s Speech (David Speidler)
Monday, August 30, 2010 at 12:04 pm
I doubt How to Train Your Dragon will be up for Best Film and if an animated film were to be up for nomination I don’t doubt it would be Toy Story 3.
Personally, I think How to Train Your Dragon trumps Toy Story 3 so I root for HTTYD but I won’t deny that TS3 definitely has the backing of the ever so loved Pixar so they have a stronger standing.
While the public loves Inception, like Avatar from last year, being such a big-budget hyped movie might work against them.
Monday, September 6, 2010 at 11:57 am
ALL WHITE PEOPLE AND THEIR BORING MOVIES. BORING AS HELL.
Thursday, September 9, 2010 at 3:34 pm
I’m surprised nobody is talking about Polanski’s The Ghost Writer, at least in the directing and writing categories, plus an acting nod for Olivia Williams.
And then, my favourite film of the year, Mike Leigh’s Another Year.
Anyhow, here ar my choices so far:
Picture: Another Year
Director: Mike Leigh
Actor: Tahar Rahim in A Prophet (will never happen, I know)
Actress: Lesley Manville in Another Year
Supp. actor: Guillermo Francella in The Secret of Their Eyes or Jim Broadbent in Another Year
Supp. Actress: Olivia Williams in The Ghost Writer
For whole list of predicted nominees and comments, read my blog Imitation of Life:
http://imitationlife.wordpress.com/2010/09/09/best-of-the-year-early-oscar-predictions-2011/#more-615
Saturday, September 25, 2010 at 12:18 am
You need to watch Mila Kunis in “Black Swan”, she is incredible, her supporting role is awesome!
Monday, October 11, 2010 at 2:49 am
look for Fighter,Kings Speech and Casino Jack
performances lead actor-Spacey and Wahlberg (brilliant)
Bale,Adams,Leo Fighter as well as Make up
Monday, October 11, 2010 at 2:50 am
also Helena Bonham Carter-supporting actress and costumes
Friday, October 15, 2010 at 7:12 am
This needs to be updated for frequently please.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 11:49 pm
I just want to say that I’m the most unpopular opinion here because in my opinion Up is the worst animation Pixar ever made.
I read all these comments, some were so confidence about some films’ prospects and they turned out to be so wrong.