Just finished the third round of Oscar predictions in every category and the first round for the Best Documentary and Best Foreign Film categories.
Summer seems to be the prime market time for documentary releases. As you can see, 3 0f the 5 predicted docs have already been released to great critical acclaim and box office success (when you factor in release size). The Cove is the standout documentary this summer and is shaping up to be one of the best films of the year. There have been rumors that with the 10 best picture nominees, there is a chance that a documentary could sneak in. I doubt that, but if it were to happen, The Cove would be the one to do it.
Of course, that is unless Michael Moore’s Capitalism: A Love Story is destined for greater things. Back in 2003, after Farenheit 9/11 won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, Moore decided to remove it from consideration for Best Documentary and campaign for Best Picture. It didn’t get a nomination (and probably wasn’t even close). Who knows if the egotistic Moore will try the same stunt this year. If he doesn’t, Capitalism has a good shot at Best Documentary.
On the Foreign side of the game, the Cannes Film Festival gave us a look at what some countries may have to offer. The standouts of the festival were Jacques Audiard’s A Prophet and Michael Haneke’s The White Ribbon. It almost never happens that the Palme d’Or winner goes on to win the Best Foreign Film Oscar, so The White Ribbon probably won’t getÂ the top prize. However, A Prophet might have a shot with a story about cultures colliding – the type that Oscar usually falls for.
For the rest of the Foreign Film predictions, I used the Foreign Films blog for guidance. The sites author dzong2 covers the race way more in-depth than I ever could.