Golden Globe Nominations and Analysis 2009

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I meant to have this up a lot earlier, but alas…technology. Anyway, the Globes did not shake too much up with their announcement. If anything it tightened the race between Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker. Check out the results with my analysis.

Golden Globe Nominations 2009

BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourous Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

How I Did: 4 out of 5. Just I guessed might happen, Avatar replaces An Education. Also notable absent here is Clint Eastwood’s Invictus, which has been suffering lackluster reviews despite its fantastic lead performances. I would guess based on the rest of the nominations that Up in the Air has an edge, but it’s just as likely that The Hurt Locker is the HFPA’s current favorite.

Probable Winner: Up in the Air

BEST MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It’s Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine

How I Did: 4 out of 5. It really is a disappointment that they snubbed A Serious Man. One of (if not the) finest films of the year got barely a glimpse from the HFPA. Here’s hoping that Oscar isn’t so careless with their nominations.

Probable Winner: Nine

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Tobey Maguire – Brothers

How I Did: 4 out of 5. The lack of Jeremy Renner here in favor of Tobey Maguire is what leads me to believe that the voters may be leaning towards Up in the Air, but I could be reading too much into it. After all, I have to keep reminding myself – with the Golden Globes, it’s all about star power, not performance quality. The way the HFPA sees it Spiderman > That Guy from 28 Weeks Later.

Probable Winner: George Clooney – Up in the Air

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock – Blind Side
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious

How I Did: 4 out of 5. No Bright Star at the Golden Globes. I don’t know why for one moment I suspected otherwise. Emily Blunt could be set up for a strong run at an Oscar nomination if she continues to gather precursors like this.

Probable Winner: Carey Mulligan – An Education

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
Matt Damon – The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine
Robert Downey, Jr. – Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg – A Serious Man

How I Did: 4 out of 5. Thank goodness they didn’t forget about A Serious Man in this category. I’m really pulling for Michael Stuhlbarg to come out on top here, even though he’s somewhat of an underdog. I’d be satisfied if Matt Damon won as well.

Probable Winner: Matt Damon – The Informant!

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
Sandra Bullock – The Proposal
Marion Cotillard – Nine
Julia Roberts – Duplicity
Meryl Streep – It’s Complicated
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

How I Did: 3 out of 5. I was so close to predicting Julia Roberts would get a nomination for her performance in Duplicity, but then I remembered there was nothing special about her role, whatsoever. That doesn’t matter with the Golden Globes because for them it’s star power first, performance quality second. I am very happy that Meryl Streep managed two votes here. However, the danger now is that she splits votes with herself and somebody else sneaks ahead.

Probable Winner: Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon – Invictus
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

How I Did: 3 out of 5. They really were not feeling An Education at all. I’m not disappointed because I wasn’t too pleased myself with the coming of age drama (apart from Carey Mulligan’s performance). I was really unsure about The Messenger. It has strong performances, but doesn’t seem like a “Globe” type of film. I guess Woody Harrelson does it for them, though.

Probable Winner: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – Nine
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man

How I Did: 4 out of 5. They opted to go for two Up in the Air ladies instead of two Precious ladies, as I predicted. I think this pretty much shuts the door on Mariah Carey’s Oscar hopes. Julianne Moore might be the silent threat in this category. The Up in the Air ladies could split votes and Mo’Nique might not have enough prestige for the Globes’ taste. However, I think I’m still going to go with the predictable winner.

Probable Winner: Mo’Nique – Precious

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Clint Eastwood – Invictus
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

How I Did: 4 out of 5. I called the Eastwood shut out everywhere but here, but I missed Tarantino sneaking in over Lee Daniels. I would say that Kathryn Bigelow is the frontrunner here, based on precursors alone, but with the way the Globe arranged their nominations, it might just be Jason Reitman’s award to win.

Probable Winner: Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

BEST SCREENPLAY
Neill Blomkamp – District 9
Mark Boal – The Hurt Locker
Nancy Meyers – It’s Complicated
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

How I Did: 2 out of 5. Ouch.

Probable Winner: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner – Up in the Air

The rest of the categories I did not make predictions for…

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Thoughts: No Ponyo? This could look like the five animated frontrunners for the Oscars, but I would be shocked if Ponyo does not replace Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs on that list. Fantastic Mr. Fox is making a strong run for the top prize and I could see it getting the Globe while Up wins the Oscar.

Probable Winner: Up

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Baaria
Broken Embraces
The Maid
A Prophet
The White Ribbon

Thoughts: The Globe doesn’t make foolish shortlists and eliminate great films like the Oscars do. I’m guessing A Prophet and The White Ribbon will split votes giving Pedro Almodovar the opportunity to take home at least one award this season.

Probable Winner: Broken Embraces

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Michael Giacchino – Up
Marvin Hamlisch – The Informant!
James Horner – Avatar
Abel Korzeniowski – A Single Man
Karen O. and Carter Burwell – Where the Wild Things Are

Thoughts: I’m kind of sad that Michael Giacchino wasn’t on here twice (Up and Star Trek), but other than that I can’t complain about the results. Up and Where the Wild Things Are have the two best scores of the year and their composers deserve to be noticed.

Probable Winner: Michael Giacchino – Up

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Cinema Italiano” – Nine – Maury Yeston
“I Want to Come Home” – Everybody’s Fine – Paul McCartney
“I Will See You” – Avatar – James Horner, Simon Franglen, Kuk Harrell
“The Weary Kind” – Crazy Heart – Ryan Bingham, T Bone Burnett
“Winter” – Brothers – U2, Bono

Thoughts: This is one of those tricky, unpredictable categories, but I would have to guess that because Crazy Heart is so thematically dependent on music, it will get an edge. Then it will go on to get snubbed from even a nomination from Oscars psychotic music branch.

Probable Winner: “The Weary Kind” – Crazy Heart

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  • don’t sleep on Gabourey, Morgan Freeman and Tobey Maguire. i think they all gotta better chances here.

  • Brandon Cooley

    The Hurt Locker will FINALLY be released on January 12. Can’t wait!

  • Haven’t watched most of these.. Gotta catch up!

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