‘Iron Man 2’ Doesn’t Break Records, But Still Blows the Competition Away

Iron Man 2 had the 5th highest opening weekend of all-time giving the summer a much needed kick-start. The Marvel comics-based film brought in $133.6 million in its first weekend including Thursday midnight showings. Many experts had speculated that Iron Man 2 could break The Dark Knight‘s all-time weekend box office record of $158.4 million. That mark was narrowly missed, but Iron Man 2 did manage top Alice in Wonderland‘s $116.1 million weekend, giving it the top weekend of 2010.

Overall, people spent less money this weekend than I had originally predicted with no other movie earning more than $10 million. Here are the weekend’s results as well as how I did on my predictions:

Box Office Estimates
May 7-9, 2010

1) Iron Man 2 (Prediction: 1st)
ACTUAL: $133.6 million | PREDICTION: $144 million

Even though Iron Man 2 did not break any records and earned lower than many predicted, this total is far from a disappointment. I do think that this indicates that Iron Man 2 may not be the highest grossing film of the summer. Its release date puts it up against so much competition throughout the rest of the month that it really had to start with a bang. We will see if it has staying power, but based on the mediocre reviews and this weekend’s results I’m guessing (prematurely) it will finish the summer in second or third.

2) A Nightmare on Elm Street (Prediction: 2nd)
ACTUAL: $9.17 million | PREDICTION: $10.2 million

A 72% decrease from week one to week two can mostly be blamed on the fierce competition. However, it does foreshadow a pattern that I imagine will be repeating this summer season. Every time there is a big release it is almost immediately followed with one or two other big releases. I don’t think A Nightmare on Elm Street will be in the weekend top 10 for more than a few weeks.

3) How to Train Your Dragon (Prediction: 3rd)
ACTUAL: $6.76 million | PREDICTION: $8.2 million

How to Train Your Dragon‘s box office pattern is also a foreshadowing of what some movies may do this summer. The truly great films of the summer won’t necessarily start out on top, but they will work they way up through repeated viewings and staying in the top 3 even into their 7th week of release. With the summer animated family movie fare on its way, I think that How to Train Your Dragon’s box office run is faltering.

4) Date Night (Prediction: 5th)
ACTUAL: $5.3 million | PREDICTION: $3.9 million

Steve Carrell and Tina Fey win the rom-com race against J-Lo. There was a lot less separation between the top three films and the rest of the pack than I predicted. Don’t expect Date Night to remain in the top 5 for another week.

5) The Back-Up Plan (Prediction: 4th)
ACTUAL: $4.35 million | PREDICTION: $4.1 million

I was awfully close in my estimation of amount earned, but I mistakenly thought that more people would want to see J-Lo than Carrell and Fey. I’m glad that people chose the better film and I apologize for having such little faith.

6) Furry Vengeance (Prediction: 9th)
ACTUAL: $4 million | PREDICTION: $1.6 million

I was really hoping that this film would fall off the charts faster than it seems to be going, but with such little family film competition, I’m not sure what I expected. Hopefully next week people avoid it.

7) Clash of the Titans (Prediction: 6th)
ACTUAL: $2.3 million | PREDICTION: $3.4 million

Clash of the Titans had one of the lowest per theatre averages of the weekend ahead of only The Losers. Its weekend earnings brought its six week total up to $157.8 million.

8) Death at a Funeral (Prediction: Not in Top 10)
ACTUAL: $2.1 million | PREDICTION: N/A

The Chris Rock comedy managed to hang on for another week, despite my prediction. I promise not to make the same mistake next week.

9) The Losers (Prediction: 8th)
ACTUAL: $1.8 million | PREDICTION: $2.3 million

I’m still very curious as to who would want to see this movie. My prediction is that 100% of its box office total was made on people who couldn’t get into sold out Iron Man 2 showings.

10) Babies (Prediction: 7th)
ACTUAL: $1.58 million | PREDICTION: $2.5 million

This film really did not compete as much as I thought it was going to. It actually had the second highest per theatre average of the weekend, but not by much.  I guess that everybody took their moms to Iron Man 2 for Mother’s Day instead of this documentary.

Well, in my first official week of predictions I got films #1, 2, and 3 correct. Let’s see if I can keep this trend going for a while. Look for Robin Hood to challenge Iron Man 2 for the number one spot next weekend.

[Source for Totals: Box Office Mojo]

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