OSCAR TRACKER – Here Come the Precursors

View the Updated Oscar Predictions

This week started off with a batch of independent precursor awards and nominations and the week is going to finish up with the National Board of Review awards, which many people consider the official start of the Awards season. Next week the Oscar Tracker is likely to experience some big changes, but for this week they are rather minor.

Best Picture

BOOSTS

Winter’s Bone – After winning two of the biggest awards at the Film Independent Gotham Awards and leading the nominations for the Independent Spirit Awards, Winter’s Bone is looking like a solid nominee. Especially considering that it beat out films like 127 Hours, Black Swan, and The Kids Are All Right.

The Social Network – It’s hard to get boosted higher than the number one spot, but The Social Network seems to be strengthening its position as the frontrunner. Over the weekend it was named the best film of the year by Sight & Sound Magazine, which makes it the first American film to do so in five years.

DROPS

Toy Story 3 – Despite the fantastic campaigning by Disney for a Best Picture win, a lot of people have come out saying it has no chance. The L.A. Times thinks Disney’s Rich Ross is crazy for thinking that Toy Story 3 even has a chance.

Best Actor

BOOSTS

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech – Again, you can’t go much higher than number one, but up until this week the Best Actor race had been considered a two horse race between Firth and 127 Hours‘ James Franco. With this week’s announcement that Franco will co-host the Oscars, it seems like his potential win is unlikely. A lot of voters might consider the hosting gig a consolation prize while they happily give the Award to Firth.

DROPS

James Franco, 127 Hours – See the above description for Colin Firth.

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine – Gosling was snubbed from an Independent Spirit Award as was much of Blue Valentine. indieWIRE thinks this is where an indie like this should have gotten the most attention and speculates that this could spell bad things for its Oscar chances.

Best Actress

BOOSTS

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone – With all of the recent Winter’s Bone love, Jennifer Lawrence is seeming like a stronger Best Actress contender. She is not a complete lock yet, but she’s as close as she has ever been.

DROPS

Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice – The initial reviews for this film are mildly praising, but it’s probably too little too late. Last minute Oscar campaigns have to really impress audiences in order to have any effect on the race.

Best Supporting Actor

BOOSTS

Justin Timberlake, The Social Network – According to New York Post’s Page Six, Timberlake is preparing an aggressive Oscar campaign for his supporting performance. He may be able to take advantage of the quieting buzz surrounding Andrew Garfield and move into his spot. I’ll reserve judgment until we see exactly what Timberlake has in store for his “campaign.”

Matt Damon, True Grit – The first reviews of the film are expected to come in today, but The Wrap already has a few initial reactions and reportedly Jeff Bridges is good, but Matt Damon steals the show. He could easily make his way into the slim Best Supporting Actor race.

DROPS

None this week.

Best Documentary Feature

BOOSTS

Waste Land – Lucy Walker’s film got a boost by winning the IDA Documentary Award this week beating out the highly praised Exit Through the Gift Shop. Since the film was also shortlisted by the Academy, it’s definitely a worth contender.

DROPS

None this week.

See these changes reflected on the Oscar charts tonight!

[Image: Cinema Blend]

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  • http://www.filmmisery.com Davin Lacksonen

    Well, now you’ve matched my Best Picture predictions (albeit not in the same order). I feel like The Fighter has had a boost as well.

  • Angel E.

    The day Toy Story 3 wins Best Picture, is the day Lady Gaga wears a normal dress….

  • Quinn

    Did you update the predictions? If so I don’t think think they’re showing up on my computer…..

  • Mike

    I don’t think the Supporting Actor race is slim at all. It seems to be almost as strong as lead actress, and the most interesting it has been since Eddie Murphy/Alan Arkin in 2006.

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