Up until this point in the Oscar season, I have been hesitant to predict any big success for Martin Scorcese’s latest film The Wolf of Wall Street, because the perception seemed to be that the film would likely be delayed to 2014. Earlier this week we learned that the full 2 hour and 45 minute film will make it into theatres around Christmas time, positioning it at the peak of Oscar season and making it a serious awards threat.
There may not be a bigger Academy darling at this current moment in history than Martin Scorcese. His films seem to always be in the awards conversation and regularly lead the Oscar nomination tally. Let’s take a look at some numbers, shall we?
Narrative Films Martin Scorcese has Directed Since 2000
Gangs of New York (December 20, 2002) – 10 Nominations, 0 Wins (2nd Most Noms)
The Aviator (December 25, 2004) – 11 Nominations, 5 Wins (Most Noms, Most Wins)
The Departed (October 6, 2006) – 5 Nominations, 4 Wins (Most Wins)
Shutter Island (February 19, 2010) – 0 Nominations, 0 Wins
Hugo (November 23, 2011) – 11 Nominations, 5 Wins (Most Noms, Tied Most Wins)
The only outlier in the bunch is Shutter Island, which had its initial release delayed, was not released during Oscar season, and was not campaigned by the studio. The rest of the films have a combined total of 37 Oscar nominations and 14 wins. Scorcese’s films have been dominant in the technical categories, acting categories, writing categories, and of course, director. With this sort of recent history, it’s not a risk at all to pick a Scorcese film to earn many Oscar nominations. In fact, the risky prediction might be to bet against Scorcese.
The Wolf of Wall Street appears to be more similar to The Departed than Scorcese’s more technically demanding period projects. This means it probably won’t be a 10+ nomination leader like some of his other efforts. However, The Wolf of Wall Street instantly has to be considered a threat in Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Picture. We are still a couple weeks away to any reviews of the film, but it would not be surprising to have it start showing up in precursor awards at the beginning of December.
Elsewhere there are not too many other changes in the Oscar charts this week. George Clooney’s The Monuments Men has been delayed to early next year, so it joins Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher as one of the 2014 Oscar race casualties. The Best Actor and Best Actress races have been pretty narrowed down with word still out on whether or not American Hustle or the aforementioned Wolf of Wall Street will have any sort of impact on those categories.
Take a look at all of the updated Oscar predictions and share your thoughts in the comments!