Predicting the LA and NY Critics Awards

Two of the most highly regarded precursors are the annual awards given by the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. These critics Awards are becoming more influential in every given year with their winners appearing continually stronger in the Oscar race. Last year was one of the few times that the two critics groups agreed, with both choosing The Hurt Locker as their best picture winner, effectively shifting the race in favor of the eventual Best Picture winner.

Only once in the past decade has the L.A. Film Critics winner for Best Film also won Best Picture at the Oscars (The Hurt Locker). The New York Critics have a slightly higher correlation with three of their Best Film winners taking home the top prize at the Oscars (The Hurt Locker, No Country for Old Men, and The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King). These critics groups have also been known to mix things up a bit with several out of left field winners including last year’s LAFCA Best Actress winner Yolande Moreau (Seraphine), 2008’s NYFCC Best Director winner Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), or 2003’s LAFCA Best Supporting Actor Bill Nighy who won for appearing in 4 films (AKA, I Capture the Castle, Lawless Heart, and Love Actually).

Just like all of the other precursors we are now left to speculate whether there 2010 nominations will change the direction of the Oscar race like their 2009 selection The Hurt Locker, repeat what other precursors have already said like the NYFCC 2007 No Country for Old Men, or go in a completely different direction and be mostly ignored like their 1995 agreement on Leaving Las Vegas which went on to miss a Best Picture nomination.

A Social Network sweep is not unlikely this year as it is a clear frontrunner in the Best Picture and Director categories. It is rare that both of these critics groups agree on a film and the New York Critics are more likely to choose the Best Picture frontrunner, while the L.A. Critics are more likely to choose the critical darling. Past examples include NY picking No Country for Old Men while LA picks There Will Be Blood or NY picking Return of the King while LA picks American Splendor. Black Swan has been surging with lots of support from critics who are supporting it for Best Picture. I could see the L.A. critics choosing it just to give it a boost, while the NY Critics go for The Social Network.

Both critics groups like to choose acting winners who are surrounded with Awards speculation with almost all of their past winners either getting nominations or Oscar wins. The L.A. Critics are slightly more likely to go out on a limb with some of their past predictions include Sacha Baron Cohen for Borat and Vera Farmiga for Down to the Bone. The New York Critics are more than likely going to choose Colin Firth who seems to have the Oscar all but locked up for his performance in The King’s Speech. The L.A. Critics could play it safe with Firth or Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network, but I think I am going to take a risk and predict Javier Bardem for his performance in Biutiful. Los Angeles hero Sean Penn has been hitting the parties and campaigning for Bardem and the critics are likely to take notice.

For Best Actress it seems like Natalie Portman would be the clear winner for her performance in Black Swan, but that might be too obvious for groups who frequently go out on a limb. One or both of them might choose Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Lesley Manville (Another Year), or even Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine). However, I’m going to go for the obvious and choose Natalie Portman to sweep.

Below are my predictions for how things will go down when the Los Angeles Film Critics Association announces their awards on Sunday and the New York Film Critics Circle announces theirs on Monday.

New York Film Critics Circle

Best Film
The Social Network

Best Actor
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

Best Actress
Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Fighter

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo – The Fighter

Best Director
David Fincher – The Social Network

Best Animated Film
Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film
A Prophet

Best Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network

Los Angeles Film Critics Association

Best Film
Black Swan

Best Actor
Javier Bardem – Biutiful

Best Actress
Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Fighter

Best Supporting Actress
Jackie Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Best Director
David Fincher – The Social Network

Best Animated Film
The Illusionist

Best Foreign Language Film
Lebanon

Best Documentary Feature
Inside Job

We get to see how wrong I am early next week. What are your predictions for these two major critics groups?

, , , , , , , , , ,

  • Andrew R.

    I want to say something about the OSCAR race. (I don’t bother with the critics awards.) I think it’s currently down to 12 films, which I shall now refer to as “The Dirty Dozen.”

    Those 12 films are: Social Network, King’s Speech, Inception, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, Kids Are All Right, The Fighter, Winter’s Bone, True Grit, Another Year, Black Swan, and The Town.

    The first six are in. The Fighter is very likely. The other five are going to battle it out.

  • Don’t be too confident. This time last year I’m guessing you weren’t analyzing The Blind Side (but I could be wrong). I agree that those are a solid top twelve though and it is an interesting way to look at it. But you really should pay attention to the Critics awards as the past three years BPs have been the Critic’s favorites. We live in an age where there influence really counts. I’m holding out for something to make a surprising splash, I’m hoping for The Ghost Writer.

    Black Swan is an interesting pick for LA, Alex. I think they might go for The King’s Speech. I know it isn’t their typical fare, but that town is apparently bouncing with buzz for that film. I’d be shocked if Social Network lost NY.

  • Brandon Cooley

    Andrew, don’t forget about Blue Valentine. Its rating might push it onto the nomination list (if its good).

  • With 10 nominations I think it’s way too early to narrow it down to 12. At this time last year, we could have said the “dirty dozen” were The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Up in the Air, Precious, Inglourious Basterds, Up, A Serious Man, Invictus, An Education, Bright Star, A Single Man, The Lovely Bones.

    Before the guild awards and the Golden Globes, District 9 and The Blind Side weren’t even on the radar yet.

  • Andrew R.

    I said “CURRENTLY down to 12 films.” It’s subject to change, trust me.

  • julian

    andrew…what about rabbit hole?? To me, it is a likely BP nominee (helped along by possible actress nominations for kidman and wiest plus good reviews) and if there is any justice (and long term memory still serves a purpose) The Ghost Writer is a lock..(should be, anyway)

  • Andrew R.

    Rabbit Hole is a definite Actress nominee, a likely S. Actress nominee, and an uncertain BP nominee.

    Ghost Writer will have to pull a nomination out of nowhere.

  • For most recent information you have to visit the web and on internet I found this web site as a most excellent web page for most up-to-date updates.

    Have a look at my web site supplement Garcinia [Anastasia]

Privacy Polcy | Contact Us